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If I want to really backtest a buy and hold strategy I need to have the financial information of all the stocks back then even the ones that no longer exist. Do you know where to find it?

There is a lot of platinum on the moon, and there are a lot of companies working on colonizing the moon to mine it. Nobody knows when but it is a risk you have to take into account.

But to put it in a context we can learn from, what percentage is that of your savings or liquid net worth?

I see it as insurance against a black swan, not as something to trade.

Why is it not a Hold?

Hedge against hyperinflation or other black swan events.

Buy and hold physical.

I usually go with 20%. What do you think?

Do you hedge with gold, if so, how?

And humans usually think they know more than they really do just because they can explain a past event.

I think this is the first question about risk management one needs to ask himself. Don't you think?

Hindsight bias all over the place. Even that trading system could be a huge winner in the next 10 years.

You can find 16384 of the dumbest people on earth with $1000 dollar each one. Put then to play head or tails betting all the money they have. At the end, you have 1 trader that turned $1000 into 16 million in one afternoon! And you can go and write a book called Coin Wizards.

Would you? Does it mean that it would not be profitable in the future?

You can get this results just by luck with a sample big enough.

Survival bias.

Indeed you need a strategy but you can't know for sure that it can make money by backtesting it. Are you familiar with the survival bias?

How did you find proof that the markets are not random? Can you give an example of one of those patterns?

Money management rules.

Maybe, but if you adjust your parameters to make it more profitable, isn't that a biased test?. How can you make those adjustment to your strategy if you don't know what the next market would be?