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  1. BlueWaterSailor

    poopy's competition journal

    If you say that you're a faster runner than I am, and it turns out that you can run backwards faster than I can normally, the competition would not be "meaningless"; you'd be proving that you do indeed run faster than I do. Unless you use some sort of mechanical aid, the comparison would be a...
  2. BlueWaterSailor

    poopy's competition journal

    The default ToS sim account gives you delayed futures data (you have to request real time.) You can game that thing all day long and "make" millions. I've also played around with TradeStation's sim, and it's STOOPID about flies; you can show a couple of hundred $K profit just by buying a bunch...
  3. BlueWaterSailor

    poopy's competition journal

    ON, you missed it. I.e., he's long volatility into the election. The words "the only sensible position" come to mind.
  4. BlueWaterSailor

    Using puts to protect a position

    OCT BITO 20 last traded at 3.18. Rounding up: Stock: 17.70 Strike: 20 Price: 3.20 Cost: 3200 At expiry: Future stock price: $12 Future option price: 8.00 Value: 8000 Stock PnL: -5700 Option PnL: +8000 - 3200 = 4800 Total: -900 (max loss) This assumes you don't do rational things like selling...
  5. BlueWaterSailor

    Long dated buying

    I understand your frustration; it took me a hell of a lot of skull sweat and pounding my head against the brick wall until I broke through. @destriero's posts here were invaluable.
  6. BlueWaterSailor

    Long dated buying

    For spreads, I wouldn't call decisions about width "forecasting". It may be driven by margin considerations, or the average range for the tenor, or the amount of risk I feel like taking on a given trade. That's quite different from the "working" strike. It's not, of course; I used shorthand in...
  7. BlueWaterSailor

    Long dated buying

    I can get a payoff of infinity with a zero-cost backspread. Does that count? :sneaky:
  8. BlueWaterSailor

    Long dated buying

    The fact that a rise to infinity is priced "fairly" is irrelevant; it's not a bet I'm interested in making. :) SPY may rise $20 in the next 30 days. It will not, in any sensible conception of the market, rise by $100 during that time. Why would I pay for a chance that it "might", and why would...
  9. BlueWaterSailor

    Long dated buying

    Regardless of how much conviction you have, why would you pay for a bet out to infinity or a drop to zero?
  10. BlueWaterSailor

    Long dated buying

    That's nice, but how it's REPORTED has nothing to do with how it's CALCULATED. Your claim was that it's CALCULATED "one year ahead", which is wrong. Try reading and understanding instead of arguing next time.
  11. BlueWaterSailor

    Long dated buying

    :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
  12. BlueWaterSailor

    ...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

    Wouldn't disagree with that for a stack of dollars. Hell, I have many of their posts archived, just in case this site disappears. There was also this guy called 'Destriero' who was pretty awesome... :rolleyes: Those folks, the 0.001%, are who I owe that traction I mentioned to - and I'll stand...
  13. BlueWaterSailor

    ...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

    Cool. Got any strong ones to recommend? On this site, I mean? :cool: 99.999% of the threads on this site are "weak" - or a hell of a lot worse than that. Mostly white noise, some people honestly trying to learn (and mostly failing), some small percentage succeeding, some - too damn few - trying...
  14. BlueWaterSailor

    ...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

    Hahahaha... you rock, man! Me, I wish they taught the basics of rational thought, effective communication, and how to be a responsible, courageous, self-reliant human being with integrity - but what do I know. Except there are too damn few of those in this world...
  15. BlueWaterSailor

    ...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

    As a friend of mine used to say, "there's no believer - or atheist - as fervent as a new one." I'm not surprised; there was that smell of jilted admirer in the air, along with an almost womanly peevishness; a personal sort of spite. This would explain it. (If he was sending you feverish...
  16. BlueWaterSailor

    Long dated buying

    I've got a couple of spreads on right now for EOY. Unlike my usual games around vol, they're bets on fundamentals (in this case, rates.) Not something I do too often unless I see an obvious move. Forget greeks - theta most of all (you're paying so little that it might as well not exist at all.)...
  17. BlueWaterSailor

    ...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

    That's my take on him as well. Maybe I missed the "serial killer and torturer of small animals in disguise" aspect, but I kinda doubt it. Way I figure it, each one of us is best left alone - with help and advice when asked for - to work out our own damnation. Those who want to make others'...
  18. BlueWaterSailor

    ...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

    Dear me; it's still frothing, yapping (invisibly), and throwing itself against the gates. I must have triggered it quite badly. :D My job - or more appropriately, hobby - is done. :cool::cool::cool:
  19. BlueWaterSailor

    ...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

    LOL Dog shit like you talking about "the shallow end of the gene pool" is amusing, but you've now run out your entertainment value. Flushing you - as ON and any normal human being should do - is the only right answer. Buh-bye! :D
  20. BlueWaterSailor

    ...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

    Hey, @Overnight! If this is the average quality of the worthless cocksuckers who have been annoying you, I can see why you'd keep them around. I mean... it's low, low quality entertainment - like watching shit swirling around a drain - but hey, it works for some. Not for me, mind you; a couple...
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