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Weekly close back below 1.15 is not too reassuring for the EUR/USD bulls, but I think knocking out the 1.15 barrier is still somewhat significant. EUR/USD never adjusted upward to the compression b/w German and US yields during the risk-off UST rally, so there is some room to move up towards...

Way late on this reply- I was making the "expensive" argument on fundamentals/"fair value", not technicals. Either way, I got stopped out @ 1215. Tight inventories and declining diesel share of auto sales in EU are just pumping the market up and up. It's trading at over a 60% premium to...

Think it's time to sell- momentum turned. Close over $1200 is invalidation, otherwise look out below

Specifically for EURJPY, there is a reasonably liquid EJY contract that you can trade too

Things to consider: 1) Execution costs (as you stated, will be higher w/ 2x the trades) 2) Bid/Ask spread costs will be doubled (as you're paying the worse 2x) 3) Contract size: make sure the contracts sizes line up i.e. AUD future is A$100,000 = $71,800; EUR is €125,000 = $141,875, so if you...

That's one argument, but that would mean there was no dot-com bubble, not tulip-maina, no bitcoin bubble, etc. In some sense, "fair value" is whatever someone is willing to pay (the price), but I don't believe that's the most useful way of approaching trading. It completely ignores the human...

Totally agree with this, which is why I'm on the sidelines right now. I'm more making the argument that there is a fair value / "right price" that is tethered to the fundamentals. I've quantitatively modeled that fair value (taking into account macro and specific features of the palladium...

I'm thinking the current 2630-2815 range is going to hold for a bit. In my view, fundamentals did not support the pre-October highs, and the crash was an appropriate correction of the extended valuations. The market seemed to still be priced for tax-fueled earnings growth, even though common...

Hello all, First post here, and I'm looking to hear some thoughts on palladium. My general thesis is that palladium has simply stretched itself way beyond any measure of fair value, and I'm waiting for a pause in technical momentum to short. I wrote a post a few days ago...