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We bottom when around 90% of guests on CNBC and Bloomberg are predicting a recession and a deeper bear market. We are currently at around 95%.

I am not sure why performance hasn't changed for you. For me, if I use a fast indicator designed to catch short-term trends (for example 10 days MA), I get a lot of entry signals, of which many are false signals due to noise. But over the course of a year, I can expect to take a few hundred...

Perhaps I should try to better define what exactly do I mean by "noise". The easiest and most general way is to compare a weekly chart over 50 years and a 1 min intraday chart over a week. (So that we get a similar number of data points ... 52wk * 50yrs = 2600 versus 60mins * 9hrs * 5days =...

Imagine that at any point in time, billions of dollars are waiting on the sidelines managed by thousands of fund managers or algorithms. They have a choice to trade at any minute. The buying and selling made by any of these market participants can move prices and this is also known as...

I like to think of strategy building as choosing trade-offs. If you try to catch trends early, you have to accept more false signals. If you try to catch trends when you are more confident, you end up with smaller gains. If you use too many indicators or rules to pinpoint the best entry and...

I think there are several issues when developing a strategy just to trade equities. The main problem is that stocks are highly correlated with each other, so even when you trade a basket of 500 stocks, you are essentially trading a single asset class. Furthermore, given that equity bull runs can...

I trade a trend following strategy myself, and these statistics seem reasonable. However, 10 years might be too short for stocks, since a large part of those years are bull market years except for a short bear market in H1 2020 and 2022 YTD. If you trade a long-only strategy, you would expect...

I am a professional portfolio manager for a family office and we would buy structured notes regularly. The main reason for using them is to construct well-defined pay-offs (especially more complicated ones) without having to get into the buying & selling of options and re-investing option...

You will only know if the strategy is robust after a thorough backtest. Given that you are comfortable with Excel, I suggest picking up Excel VBA. It is not the most efficient programming language, but certainly one of the easiest to learn for a beginner. And since you are already doing some...

I have a question for trend followers: Trend following strategies seems to have entered into a serious drawdown since 2016, at least based on the medium term time frame. Is this normal? Because drawdowns in the past according to my data, usually don't last that long. The latest drawdown seems to...

I only recently started to trade for friends and family and I kinda anticipated that they were expecting a get-rich-quick opportunity. So right from the start, I made sure that they are fully aware of the risks involved and also the kind of returns to realistically expect. I think that...

Hi! I am Singaporean and I have only recently started trading my strategy live.

I think this is a great question, but I am afraid I do not have the perfect answer for it. Firstly, I don't think it is possible to predict how trend following strategies will perform in the next 12 months or the next 10 years. The only information we have is how they have performed in the...

For trend following strategies to do well enough to be a worthy investment, the mere existence of trends is not enough. For a medium to long term trend following strategy, you need strong trends that can last. And they need to occur often enough for trend followers to do well. Similarly, for...

Any investment or trading strategy that I had ever come across, had at some point experienced periods of poor performance. To gauge whether a particular strategy is still valid, the only thing that we can do is to look back at its historical performance. And as long as historical performance...

Selling religion has been a very lucrative trade since the beginning of time.

Even for market makers, you need a healthy level of trading activity. Traders hitting the buy and sell queues allowing you to earn the spread. In some markets, activity during ETH could dry up to the extent that there are only a few trades every few mins. That actually makes market making...

I guess it depends on what kind of instruments you will be trading. For futures, 20k capital means you won't be able to trade some markets or size your positions properly for good risk management. I think the most important part is your position size. If you take big trades, its suicide.

I guess generally the entry rules for trend following are pretty much the same. But I was thinking if anyone found an area that is particularly worth researching on. For example did anyone benefit from using better position sizing techniques like the Kelly Formula? Or integrated some Bayesian...

Hi KCOJ. Perhaps I should elaborate on what I mean by maximizing winning trades. I mean to maximise the returns from winning trades in the sense that I scale into trades that are trending well and thus in my favour. This is consistent with what the original group of Turtles were taught by...