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Are you offering something like a short term forecast service?

I'm already trading with IB, and like I said, I would be looking for something that can give 3, 6 or 12 month forecasts as well at least for the major currencies, with fundamental analysis with variables like growth, trade etc. I prefer to be leveraged, and so trade currency futures. Also I do...

I still am on the search for this. The problem is that any banks I find that can do this are private banks, and require a big account to be opened, and on top of that I don't necessarily know the quality of their research. Maybe I am searching for this in the wrong way? Is there not someone who...

I am looking for good forecasting services for forex. My current bank, UBS, has an investment part that gives good analysis and 3, 6 and 12 month forecasts of all major currencies, with fundamental analysis, trade issues, politics etc. This is a good service, but I am looking for more like...

I have been reading some analysis on how different exchange rate levels boost or hurt exports. Obviously in general weaker currency = more competitive exports. But it seems that analysts somehow determine more exactly the levels, for example this excerpt: For example, one analysis states USDCAD...

Actually sorry for that, it was a stupid question, there's guides out there that show how to do it.

Interesting, I hadn't realized that. Do you perhaps have a link or some primer to using the OIS data to calculate the probabilities?

I would like to understand how to calculate implied rate hike probabilities for other countries other than just the US. Understanding how much a rate hike is priced in can be a useful tool (assuming of course that if it's in the futures, then it's also baked in other instruments as well, which...

Taken directly from J.P. Morgan Fixed Income Views 4q 2017 (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/insights/portfolio-insights-gfiv): "U.S. rate expectations Longer term, we do not expect a balance sheet run-off tantrum, but instead, we expect a gentle rise in rates. One of the...

I am trying to understand the classic carry trade. I would greatly appreciate any help. My questions might not be the simplest, but hopefully I have posted this in the right subforum (Economics). There are perhaps many currency pairs that you can do the carry trade, but let us take the US...

The Economist mentioned in one of their articles how retail sales account for only about 40% of consumer spending. My question is: What is the remaining 60% of consumer spending? A part of it is house buying I guess?

I'm reading an economics book, and in the rates analysis, the author says "If someone knew the future interest rates, they would be a very rich person." Of course I don't disagree with this statement, my question is: Say you knew the future interest rates up to say 5 years in the future with...

To ask a more practical question now, if I want to buy US government bonds, should I participate in one of the upcoming auctions? Or is there another way?

In which scenario do long term bonds fall? As in when do investors perceive their long term assets will decline? It can't necessarily be an easing monetary policy because if you 're holding 10-30 year bonds it is unlikely that such a policy (which might be for up to 5-6 years maybe) will affect...

Thanks, these do make sense. Any other scenario, which can be more complicated?

Thanks for this. There is indeed a mountain of people here that know even less than me. That being said, I don't think Martinghoul is among them, that's why I talk to him. Why would a small investor attempt to buy longer term bonds if the outlook for the shorter term is down? How does that work...

If my understanding of overnight deposits is correct, well it still seems to be very low (in the 0.05% range from a few banks I looked at). Assuming a parallel rise in yields, a 3 month t-bill should return 0.9%, more than most deposits to my knowledge.

I am confused indeed, and missing something as usual. I understand that Fed funds rate has little to do with long term yields, but it closely connected to short term yields from my understanding. So one could make the assumption that short term bonds up to 2 years maybe will be more attractive...

When you say cash in their account do you mean money in the bank? Currently 10year yield is at 2.38%, I don't think any bank offers anything close to that.

Every so often I hear on Bloomberg or other sources that the market has priced in the next 2 rate hikes for this year. Do you guys think so? I'm not so sure. For one, it seems to me that speculators that enter the market with large positions unwind these positions very often. Also, when the rate...