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  1. K

    Chess

    Congratulations to Magnus Carlsen for winning the World Championship by winning the rapid playoffs (again!). He is certainly the best player when combining the classical, rapid, and blitz performances. But if judged only by classical, I think he now has quite a bit of competition from other...
  2. K

    Acosta Out

    I don't think Acosta's actions were appropriate during the news conference, and I do think the White House could take action because of it. But seriously, claims of him assaulting the intern? Talk about fake news from Trumptards, following in the footsteps of their Liar-in-chief.
  3. K

    Implied Vol Neutral

    Is there a [relatively simple] way to negate effects of implied vol changes? If I have an iron fly that expires Friday, and it settles exactly at the strike of the body, I know what my profit will be: But if I have a calendar (2 wk/1 wk): ... and on Friday it closes exactly at the strike...
  4. K

    Chess

    The WC match ended in a 6-6 tie. *sigh* Now comes the rapid/blitz tiebreak. Just like in the Anand-Gelfand match, I feel there's something wrong with what is essentially a classical (time control) world championship match being decided by rapid chess, much less by blitz, if necessary. I...
  5. K

    Chess

    Somewhat different, as there are only four games left. Carlsen must have been very frustrated with the match to over-press like that. I wonder what he was thinking when he played 35.c5 - maybe he was taking extra risk based on mutual time trouble or he missed Qa4-d7. He'll press even more...
  6. K

    Chess

    In the post-game press conference, Karjakin admitted he totally missed 18...Qc6. He went from thinking 18.Bxh6 was a brilliancy to now thinking his position was just much worse. When 19.Bc1 was pointed out as a better alternative to him, at first he said he was unhappy with that position as...
  7. K

    Chess

    Game 3 Carlsen-Karjakin 1/2-1/2. Tough, long game. Better than the first two, as Carlsen really pressed on the white side this time. I think Karjakin made it tough for himself with what he played. When I was watching the first half of the game, I thought playing 23...Re8 would be the best...
  8. K

    Chess

    Until he resigns :) j/k It depends on what the time control is, how deep the game goes into opening theory, how aggressively or passively we play (type of position), and what you mean by last. In classical, I would say over 20 moves and less than 40 moves before a resignable position. If my...
  9. K

    Chess

    Well, we can disagree on how important openings are. Sure, white can play 1. a3 without risk (though without much advantage), but playing as black 1...a6 could be a different story.
  10. K

    Chess

    The Trompowsky Attack is a sound opening. But it also shouldn't be very dangerous for black, and the question is whether Carlsen should have played it in the match. Seirawan argues that in an important match you should play your "A" opening at the beginning. Find out where you stand, and if...
  11. K

    Chess

    WC Game 1 Carlsen-Karjakin Trompowsky (Trumpowsky) Attack drawn. Solid defense by Karjakin.
  12. K

    Anyone have a favorite options strategy trade through earnings?

    It does matter what you put on. In a vol crush, double and triple calendars will likely lose if held through the earnings report. Single calendar can work if the price ends up near the strike, otherwise it will probably lose as well.
  13. K

    Anyone have a favorite options strategy trade through earnings?

    Long Fly, although my FB put fly 129/124/119 is in jeopardy as AH price crashed through all the strikes.
  14. K

    The curse of the billygoat

    Woohoo! Not in Chicago anymore but Congrats to Cubs!
  15. K

    Chess

    Carlsen probably took the knight so he can continue with the idea in the game starting with Bc5, which the knight is hindering. If this were classical or rapid chess and he had time to calculate, he would probably have played the more sensible Rad1 - after all, white is a solid pawn up and he...
  16. K

    Early exercise + dividend capture: Did I miss obvious $?

    It's fine. With the unassigned contracts, I'm getting someone's juicy dividend lunch, but not for free with the overnight near-ATM covered call risk. I understand I have to do a risk assessment. If I really didn't want to deal with it, I'd just buy back the short calls and sell the stock...
  17. K

    Early exercise + dividend capture: Did I miss obvious $?

    Yes, that's what I meant. I should get fully assigned but I don't for the close to the money calls - it's usually partial assignment. But I don't know how to safely take advantage of it because I don't know what percent of the short calls will be assigned to me.
  18. K

    Early exercise + dividend capture: Did I miss obvious $?

    If it's deep ITM, then that's fine. But if it is a close to the money call (which were the ones that I only got partial assignment), then you would need to buy an expensive put protection otherwise you may end up with a risky covered call position. But if you buy a put option and it turns out...
  19. K

    Option volumes as screening for insider knowledge

    I think looking at unusual option activity can be useful at times. I don't use it as a primary signal, but rather as another suppporting factor when looking for direction.
  20. K

    Early exercise + dividend capture: Did I miss obvious $?

    I expected if the dividend is greater than the put of the same strike, the call option would get exercised (and buy the put). But on more than several occasions when I was short the call option, I only got partial assignment, so rather than being flat I ended up having a covered call (plus...
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