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These answers seem good though contradictory. Perhaps I understand as well as I need to.

Is an ETF's share price driven by supply and demand for the ETF shares themselves or by the total value of the ETF's holdings? In other words, is an ETF's minute-by-minute price action due to those buying and selling it or by what's happening to the ETF's component parts?

What does a study such as you describe say is the contribution of shorting to a trend-following system?

Trend Following In Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Backtest, PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS, January 2, 2016 and Trend Following in Focus, QR Capital Management, LLC, September 2018

Since there is no .com by that name you imply that this web site isn't for long only?

Let my stops execute and wait.

I am an intermediate-term trend follower. Some call it position trading. I don’t short-sell because studies show that shorting adds approximately zero to a trend-following system. This is because 1) it runs counter to the overall up-trend of markets, 2) you don't reap dividends, and 3) the...

If it were calculated that you were in the top 1% globally, which is likely given how the Abyssinians through Zimbabweans of the world drag the average down, would you gladly give up your savings, paltry to you but extravagant to them?

I made a mint in commodity-related stocks in 2020 too, but my stop orders executed a couple weeks ago and I have, unfortunately, hesitated to get back in.

Thank you for a straight answer. Half of me says you are right, half says we need theories to guide our science.

Would you want your savings stolen? "Do unto others . . ."

I think of the broad indices as leaders and the commodity producers (COPX etc.) as followers. Granted, the producers had been driven into the ground. But surely the producers can't lead for very long.

How is "a big chunk of US debt out of the play"? Don't understand you.

When the Fed does something that promotes price inflation, that inflationary effect is lessened to the (very large) extent that non-Americans hold dollars. We "export our inflation". And since the other monetary heavies, like the euro and yuan, are equally inflationary, the dollar doesn't lose...

I believe I read you saying once that you will sometimes cut short a stop order, so I was wondering if you would chime in. I am happy with how I calculate stop prices but as a position trader I have not yet developed hard rules about when to exit the market generally (I don't short). Maybe in...

Nobody who uses stop orders to exit from their trades would say you should ever relax that discipline by cancelling an order or lowering the stop price in order to hang on. But some might change that stop order into a market order when something tells them they should. What could that something...

For ten years I held global index funds, and that served me well. Now I trade too frequently to be called an investor and too infrequently to to be called a trader! I am an in-betweener.

One reason it takes so long to know you can beat the market is that chance and randomness dominate earnings (or losses) for a long time before whatever true edge you have shines through in the numbers. Plus if you continue to refine your system the early returns on equity aren't entirely...

Last week I posted a theory as to why most investors or traders under-perform the market, and how the Wisdom of Crowds plays a role. I was full of shit. Here is my thinking now. In the first place, I confused the total U.S. stock market with the S&P 500. Home bias is common, so it’s okay to...

"Net of transaction costs/fees, the average fully invested market participant will exactly match their benchmark, if it is the perfect benchmark for that investor (an impossible ideal but close enough to reality IMO), IF by average you mean "arithmetic mean". If however you mean "median", it...