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No, it's far more fundamental than this. There are many ways to trade but the overwhelming majority of ways are mediocre. All the mainstream stuff in the public domain (aka "usual tripe") falls into the mediocre category. Therefore, the #1 pre-requisite, before starting out trading, is to find...

The obvious pre-requisite to making GOOD money trading is spelled out in this post by "The Expert": https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/if-you-want-to-fail-as-a-trader-study-ta.197367/page-127#post-2893420 If you were hoping for something more specific than this, forget it. No-one who has...

Clearly they don't consider trading to be gambling, otherwise they'd realise this was a silly and ridiculous quest. As for price direction, I just guess and try to get better at guessing. Surely, with practise, I can guess better than a coin toss? :D

The obvious pre-requisite to trading profitably is finding a method which has been proven to consistently make money. Without a proven method, you'll never make GOOD money no matter how disciplined you are at money management. There is a lot of misdirection in this thread but the one thing...

The OP also said "The obvious is simple, and it is because it is so simple that 99.999% do not even stop to try and work it out." When you've worked out the "obvious" then this puts you on the path to finding a profitable method. But I'd forget about finding the OP's holy grail of 1000% returns.

Imagine you've just sold your house and you're renting for a year or so before buying a new property. So, you decide to put all the proceeds from the sale in BTC. If you're lucky and BTC goes up then it's all good. But if it drops 50%, you can kiss goodbye to the new house. --------- So...

Yes, this is indeed the obvious. Now we just need to find the holy grail XYZ. :D

This is kind of what trend follower hedge funds and CTAs do. They trade a bunch of uncorrelated assets (commodities, stock indices, currencies, bonds), going long or short whenever their systems detect a directional trend. There are also similar momentum strategies for individual stocks based...

99.99% of what's written about trading is bollox. The percentage might be slightly lower for this thread but not by much! :D Is M4/J_Smith FoS? Possibly, but you could say he's supplying a demand. ;) Of course, I may be talking bollox as well. :)

If anyone was able to consistently predict with that degree of accuracy, then they'd be very quickly richer than Warren Buffett. :D Looking at a very crude long term chart of RIG, in early Apr 2009 it appeared to be trending up from a low in late Dec 2008. Odds were it might keep going up...

I'd be careful getting the idea that price can be predicted with any certainty. That way of thinking can lead to overconfidence, excessive risk taking and ultimately the poorhouse. Out of interest, what sort of trading do you want to do? Intra-day? Or holding a position for a few days? Or...

What I've found is that the smaller you trade, the easier it is to make money (although obviously not big money). There is little stress involved when you're only trading peanuts, and there's no problem doing what's required eg. pulling the trigger. As soon as you put significant money on the...

Most traders (especially retail) are directional traders. They go long because they expect price to go up, and short because they expect price to go down. If price action was totally random, this form of trading would be futile. Price action may not be totally random all of the time but it's...

g) the obvious :)

Change to a different time frame where you get A or B. If you can't get A or B then either sit on the sidelines, or try a different stock, or instrument, where you can get A or B. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-17#post-2344221 Of course...

"What do you do when a stock price is moving up and down?" Well, I suppose you could open both a long and a short position, with the same stop, and see which one wins? :D

How would you trade Bitcoin from here? I wonder what the obvious way is? :D

It's very mainstream. It even has a name - swing trading. It often involves some of the other stuff you mentioned; support & resistance, indicators and other TA nonsense.

Let me ask you a question. Do you think the secret of success is being able to perfect the technique of buying swing lows and selling swing highs? What if someone told you that this was like trying to perfect the technique of riding a bike backwards? That's what nysestocks' posts are telling...

Suppose the accepted way of riding a bicycle was to sit on it facing backwards. This was what was taught in all the books and seminars on riding. The majority of people wouldn't be successful at it. Could you be in the tiny minority who did have some success riding this way? Sure. But maybe...