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I thought this except had an important message about anything and could be applied to trading. "At the core, though, most of the great theories of physics (and any other science, really) are based on really simple ideas. Richard Feynman famously suggested that, if some calamity were to wipe...

I think there are two issues. One is the idea of intuition which may be a recognition-primed decision (defined by Gary Klein). Essentially years of experience leads to massive amounts of information being stored and some cue allows "experts" to recall those memories/information almost...

You hear often that most individual stocks tend to move with the market. Some people claim it makes it harder to find an edge when trading stocks. I'm not trying to agree or disagree with that point, but I decided to take google screener for a spin and see how true this is. For those of you who...

I think there are two separate issues here: 1.) The actual failure and 2.) the result of the actual failure. The question is: Is failure ancillary to your primary objective or a symptom of some correctable behavior. You should identify what in particular are you gaining from failing. It might...

Are there any measures or indicators that attempt to show what stage or to what degree an economy is leveraged?

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-29/don-t-count-on-margin-debt-as-a-crash-indicator Take note of the margin debt vs total market capitalization section towards the bottom.

It's is very interesting to me how two people can have and justify two completely different views; and I don't mean its always bad. It might be more informative to see how close people are to maxing out there "margin debt credit cards." Is there any statistics available for that or did...

Simple and interesting article. https://hbr.org/2015/04/the-remedy-for-unproductive-busyness

I think there are 3 more zeros still.

Fan27, interesting site thanks....promagma, It just seems like the tails on the distribution of returns on a short position are not nearly as favorable. In other words catching a few big returns in stocks when long isn't as hard, but when going short my win ratio (around 50% ) remains similar...

I wanted to get some feedback...I've been backtesting and just began forward testing a system that is no more than a simple long term trend following strategy on stocks. The system in the backtests performed well. I just began forward testing. I was long only and as a result the system was...

stocks ETFs EOD data. Long term trend following.

I agree he is selling a system. My point is we all just throw around the statistic of how much traders fail but I've yet to see a report that actually breaks it down. I'm not saying it is or isn't true, I would just like to see a more statistical description of that. The chart he presents is...

I see the statistics mentioned in the various places on the Internet, including these forums. They are usually something along the line of: Only 1-10% of the people can be successful at trading or in other words 90-99% fail. In my favorite way to stringently evaluate all possible information...

If I trade a system which is based on the close price (e.g...moving average crossover ) What are the techniques for placing an order the next day. Specifically a limit order. It seems difficult to determine a limit price the next day to reduce slippage. Do you wait until open and see where...

On Planning- "If I had 8 hours to cut down and tree I'd spend 6 sharpening my axe." -President Abraham Lincoln

To add, I would think from a purely statistical view that more liquidity is essentially a larger sample size of what people believe about a price. The price would become more efficient, moving from point A to B, with less volatility. Simple Google search you may find interesting...

All the rates are annualized correct. i.e...from what I can see the 3 month rate is .02% that is .02% annualized?

I understand the concept of the risk-free rate however, I've seen both 3 mo and 10 year treasuries used as the risk free rate. What is the most common rate used when comparing portfolio returns to a risk free rate. In other words what is the risk free rate by definition, application, and currently?

So oi other words if the dollars value is falling the dollar bear would rise allowing an individual to be long in a falling market?