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The gold/fiat money argument is beat to death, and everybody seems to repeat it without any second thought...so let's get some originality here ok? Gold WAS a good substitute centuries ago...if you were a traveler from Europe to China in the 1600s, gold as a currency was your best bet; it is a...

I feel the effects of the supply shock hasn't actually happened yet, but rather systemic unhedging causing prices to go down

Could just be rotationals

"Not changing production" comes off as "we won't cut production to level the spot prices." OPEC usually keeps their supplies in check to maintain their desired level of profitability. I've never attempted to quantitatively distill their pricing mechanism but I know that they do try to...

That was my point, correlation analysis isn't perfect in the short term - I wouldn't vote with my money with that level of imprecision

Also, I don't buy the correlation evidence - if you stretch any time series long enough, everything is pretty much correlated to one another and falsely yields a high R-squared - But the ebb and flows in between aren't captured and it creates a conditional bias in the regression analysis -...

What was the basis for speculation in the first place? My reasoning was the anticipated global economic recovery narrative pushed by forecasters, central bankers, and TV talking heads...but more evidence contrary to the narrative has been coming to light as of late...

Also to add on...whether it tracks the index perfectly is less of a concern for me...if the investment thesis holds, adding leverage is always a great idea. The downside you want to watch for, and I speak from experience her: volatility is your worst enemy in securities with concave payouts...

Laissez...what's your rationale for STO? And if there really is a discernible correlation between crude oil prices and energy stocks, why specifically STO over its peers?

USD seems to be amplified on account of expectations of rising US rates, foreign central bank monetary policies notwithstanding. If you're betting against USD dollar appreciation, would you then effectively be betting on continued ZIRP US? Or the ECB's inability to inject liquidity and the BOJ's...

Holding one now and have held several before. Looking into the prospectus, these instruments don't hold the underlying stocks of its purported benchmark, but hold synthetic positions. In essence, you're holding on to a managed future portfolio that performs like a future contract that never...

Hey, that's what I would do if I were OPEC

Price wars against US NG companies - slowed global economic growth justifies the aggressive undercutting of competition.

Anybody here using Ruby for database design? Any good books or references on the topic?