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I almost never re-enter after a stop-out. When I take a breakout I expect it to break out, not hang around and go back to the OR. Same logic on a failure, I expect it to fail not keep coming back to that level again and again.

I've noticed that too. Right at the Qtr A up now but it's so late cycle that I'm not sure that level is significant.

There's an old book on managed futures by Jack Schwager where he talked about how difficult it is to pick successful traders, saying the best way is to find someone with a track record of success and buy his fund when he's in drawdown. That seems to go along with what you are saying.

Mav, I've been wondering if you are still using pivot number lines? If so, are you still using the OR-based lines for products that you track pivot lines?

This has been quite a move in the greenback... also noteworthy that crude has still powered higher in spite of it.

Must have been in town for the hedge fund party in Palm Beach. I hear lots of financial bigs attend those events...

Nice! I got some of the bond trade too. I was in it but got out after it wicked at the qtr level, then got in again a week later but got spooked out of it on the huge spike day in early Feb, so didn't make a lot on it. My best was USD/JPY... classic ACD setup on that one!

So Mav, just curious what asset classes you are trading nowadays? I am under the impression it's mostly energy spreads. I have also noted your recommendation that traders move toward spreading as they get more experienced. So am wondering if you trade flat price at all anymore.

I started listening to some Chat with Traders podcasts recently as it seems the quality control has improved. It used to be a real mixed bag where it seemed he was so desperate to get the project off the ground that he'd take anyone from ET in for an interview. Just imagining him and his...

My memory may be off on this, but isn't there a story of one of Brooks star students showing up to Surf's party in tattered clothes? Or something along those lines??

This and the riding coattails discussion earlier brings up another issue I have been curious about. At what level does order execution have to change from the way a retail trader can do it... instantaneous all-in and all-out? Retail guys are always told we have a big advantage in being small...

More of that would be great. I liked reading all the old Mav commentary in the archives. Last year I went back through the thread again and wrote down every trade idea mentioned and every answer to a trade suggestion and reviewed them through the lens of my own ACD work. Doing that was...

Mav, I have been meaning to ask about this for a while. With large players being able to hide so efficiently, have you noticed them getting better at hiding from the number lines?

Thought provoking piece on extrapolating large players positions from COT data... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hedgefunds-oil-kemp-idUSKBN1AC3CR

Anyone been watching copper? SCCO on a nice run here... first monthly A-up since January.

I remember those chatrooms from when I started at TOS. I spent some time in the two rooms mentioned in the filing... ShadowTrader and FirstWave. Crazy the things people will do with their money. I remember one guy in the FirstWave room had been averaging into bear ETF's based on the...

Man, that's nuts. And here I was assuming most of the back and forth between he and his online foes was mostly just for show. I wonder if the perp will be unmasked and revealed...

Thanks for the reply. I have looked at the 5 day change but it seems to move around too much. I can't find a signal in there. The 5 day has a mean-reverting quality to it, so if it's been strong then it's probably due to quiet down. A +10 can quickly revert back to a 0 just from normal mean...

Mav or anyone else, can you give me some advice or throw me a bone when it comes to number line derivatives? I read so much about people having success with them, and Mav saying a while back that he trades off derivatives only without caring about the raw scores... so I am puzzled as to why I...

What about currencies and commodities? If I can get a good looking entry and it starts working... I just try to hold it as long as I can. Adding on or trading in and out sounds great in theory, but in practice is another matter. Any advice you might have?