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So are you saying most opportunities are changes in perception on where rates may head or, maybe where the economy is heading....great thread...looking forward to this discussion.

Because the story is a repost.....also this topic has been covered ad nasuseum here on ole' ET.

Two can play this game...... Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2012/02/22/gasoline-prices-are-not-rising-the-dollar-is-falling/

Well how about some reality.....FT http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/05/news/economy/gasoline_export/index.htm

Nice charts----and thanks for taking your time to re-label. Should be some nice opportunities there.......

You need to reverse the months....confusing labeled this way.

I have a 7/1 ARM for 3.32.....rate tops at 7.95 worst case...I dont plan on living in the same house for more than 7 years....whats not to like about these rates!

Hook, line and sinker for me....at first After I thought about it, I tried to edit my first post into some of what he was saying was true but, couldn't be bothered by it and now turns out to be fake---- Burned by the high heater!

That is hard to believe that he said that----it's all true---but wow.

I go one for one and price it like an equity spread.....but that just me...and it gives it a bit more horsepower

Bingo! That is the word anyways...... I am very interested.

Take a look at the deferreds'---- Someone buying cattle in this equation looks very wrong. Will fundamentals win over insanity in the end? Bottom line is Feeder Cattle looks terribly expensive relative to Live Cattle right now in some of the deferred months like April/Jan or...

Hard to tell this one was an "onion" story....so close to the truth it could actually happen.....

Use it everyday and it is a wonderful tool.....but it is just that in my opinion---a tool to use in your research. Every spread has its own personality and nothing is going to beat being in the markets and learning them. One should not just simply look at a date a put something on---you...

Nor do I...I watch almost every tick everyday...so I am a cross between a fundamentalist and a tape reader. My number one rule is to never break the spread up...never ever...I just don't. It went on as a single idea. Right or wrong that's the way it's coming off.

It really depends on the spread. Price direction matters very little in some spreads....

Sound good to me and makes a lot of sense which leads be to believe this has no chance of happening.

I mean if you are buying the spread----you are bull spreading---ex. Long Oct Live Cattle/ Short Dec Live Cattle @ -5.00 I am on the buy side (bull side of the spread) and look for these prices to narrow to say -3.00 for an $800 gain On the bear side or short the spread you are selling...

It's funny you should mention because in some spreads (especially wheats) I am more than happy to average in. You always hear "never add to a loser" but, given the right set-up in some spreads (I will elaborate more if asked) I am more than happy to add to a position. Does it always work? No...

The truth is like anything else in life...there is no short cut---you need the experience to know what contract belongs where in relation to the other contract at any given time of year. Even then things can change and throw you a curveball even if you look at the historic norms of the...