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Here's what the Fed Funds futs are predicting: http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1563,00.html As per Rick Santelli on CNBC, we look at non-meeting months for predictions: Apr: 94.75 = (100 - 5.25%) = 0% chance of raise or cut by (end of) April July: 94.815 = 0.065*4 = 26% chance...

So far the 2/27 market drop is playing out like 5/11/2006. Look what could be coming next: (see chart) "Could" is the operative word: I'm not in the business of trying to make money predicting the next move on a daily timeframe, but I think it is useful to keep in mind and consider for your...

At an average trade of about $25/contract and 2.5 trades a day, you may not be able to quit your day job with this system :) I see you've included commissions (good), but what about slippage? This could eat significantly into your $25 on the ES with a $12.50 tick. Does your 3 month test...

20 day ave range, per contract: NQ = $640 ER2 = $1500 $1500 > $640

I noticed the irregular movement on the Qs around 8:20 PST. The T&S showed orders going through above ASK and below BID on the CINN (Cincinnati ?) exchange. This was causing the candle to jump up and down 5 or more cents at a time. Delayed processing of trades (at CINN) might explain this, as...

Great info on the F&F Advisor accounts, esp. SSB. I've got one (more) question though. In the first few pages of the Master account application I was presented with the following: "In order to participate in Interactive Brokers' Friends and Family Advisor Program, you must certify that: ·...

I couldn't log in today using the new version 867. Went back to previous Java version and I could log in and everything worked fine: Java: 1.5_0_02 TWS: 866.5 No more Beta testing for me!

Here's some options for the ER2: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=84546&perpage=6&pagenumber=3

Actually, it's more like a straddle, since you are buying two puts for every one contract you are long (ie ATM, delta=0.5). I have looked into this method and even tried it once, more as a method to hedge my position if the futures exchange went down. The payoff can be positive in both...

I don't think anyone here ever disagreed with 1). You are the one who came up with the "flip the negative expectancy" idea in your first post. .:D I did not say 2), I don't even understand what it means. What I did say was: "You won't have a 50% chance of profit on the next trade if your...

I did not imply that. Expectancy will be close to 0 no matter what the PT and SL are (as asap has been saying). You can't say this without qualifying your exit method. You won't have a 50% chance of profit on the next trade if your PT is double your SL, for example. Let me rephrase...

50% chance only if your profit target and stop loss are the same. Thinking that you can find a random entry strategy with negative expectancy (of any significance) that you can "flip" is the flaw in your logic.

Check out my new "Long Only" system:

You guys crack me up. :D

When I compare $TICK and $TICKC on TS, I see the divergence has been gradual over the last 3 or so months, not suddenly as I was expecting. My hypothesis is that NYSE Direct electronic trading is being counted as "regional" tick and as this volume increases so does the difference between...

Glad to see I'm not the only person on ET using $TICK on TS! Try using $TICKC. I suspect that TS may have switched the data on $TICK from the composite tick to the "local" tick (no regional exchanges) around the 12th of December. I need to do a little more investigation after the market closes.

Nope. I usually use it to determine the volatility of an instrument or an indicator.

Looks like an issue with my Tradestation data. Compared it to IB and it is definitely wrong. I will look into this further. Thanks for verifying.

The ratio of 1 ES for every 3 YM contracts is way too low. Its much closer to 1 to 1. Beaten to death in this thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=46256&perpage=6&pagenumber=8

I used TradeStation and added a custom indicator to a 5min $TICK chart that contained the following lines: if Date <> Date[1] then begin atrLong = AvgTrueRange(78)[1]; So on the first bar of each day, it calculates the ATR for the previous day (78 5min bars 9:30 - 4pm). I then...