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  1. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    Exactly.
  2. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    I have no problem with criticism--I have a problem with guys who criticize just because they obviously enjoy it. I wasn't asking for "approval," as you put it, for this trade. I was attempting to get different perspectives, as it is a smart thing to do IMO. I learn a lot by asking questions...
  3. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    * rolls eyes * I've made around 30% for three straight years, and I'm probably ten years younger than you--I'm not bitter about anything. Life is great, and trading has treated me very well. I pity guys like you, but enjoy taunting you at the same time.
  4. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    I was a listed trader after spending a year on the Autex desk. I find it amusing that you think you know me and my trading history based on selling ERTS puts. To infer so much, based on so little, proves your ignorance IMO. But, like I said, you do amuse me. Can I get some fries...
  5. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    I was under the impression this forum was devoted to options trading, and some of the posters seem intelligent. But, while I have received some decent feedback, I admit most posts provide no rationale aside from "Dumb Trade" or "You will lose." No fundamental analysis to back anything up.
  6. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    Thanks buddy.
  7. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    I worked on a trading floor for several years with two firms, and the critics were always the guys who didn't have a clue what they were doing, but loved to proclaim their genius. Always finding problems with others, yet never creating anything. You contribute nothing. Care to tell me what...
  8. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    Notoriety? That's funny. Notoriety on this board, and a quarter, will get you a phone call. Just trying to start some dialogue--this board slows down too much at times. I don't mind if some disagree with the trade (or any trade), but I do get annoyed with guys who just want to be pricks...
  9. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    Let me know what you find out. I've studied gaps for quite some time, and am always looking for more insight. Today's ERTS activity really whipsawed me--looked like textbook support on high volume. Almost identical to AMZN's drop on Feb 3rd of this year.
  10. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    Hindsight is always 20/20, and I really can't stand armchair quarterbacks such as yourself. I always used to tire of listening to guys like you say, "Oh, I sold in Jan 2000 right before the bubble burst--I just had an intuition." Right. If I would have waited three hours, I could have...
  11. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    LOL--Didn't mean to bring up bad memories (NVDA)! Sorry. Your concerns are legitimate, but let me attempt to alleviate them a bit. In '05, they still expect rev growth of 6%+, which isn't great, but at least it's positive. They attribute the earnings shortfall to lower catalog sales...
  12. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    Nope, just sold ten contracts, and I'll buy them back if ERTS drops below $54.80 (200-day MA). RIMM scared me straight--it may have worked out ok in the end, but what if RIMM would have gapped DOWN ten points. Ouch. Lesson learned.
  13. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    At this point, I would be most pleased if the puts simply expired. But, the long-term outlook on ERTS is very positive and I've been waiting for it to drop for a while so I could buy in at a good price. They just signed an exclusive contract with the NFL, thus cutting out competition--that is...
  14. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    Based on some personal research, and that of UBS/Wedbush/Piper/RBC Dain analysts, I would say a year-end target of $65-$67 is very fair (some analysts say $75+, but I think that's overly optimistic). The initial surge of volume this morning propelled ERTS from an open below $57 to almost $59...
  15. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    Thanks for that deep, well-thought-out rationale.
  16. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    Yes, I believe you may be correct. That being said, I just don't have the stomach right now to ride out a longer contract. I just took a wild ride on RIMM (check the charts) being short bear put spreads at 65/60. It worked out very well in the end, but I think I got an ulcer (j/k).
  17. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    I hope you're kidding and that was just a lame attempt at humor. If not, you need to study gap ups/downs and the following volume/direction. I've made a lot of money shorting/longing gaps that don't have follow-through strength. Go read Marty Zweig.
  18. C

    Sold ERTS Apr 55 puts today @ $.90

    This stock is oversold IMO (RSI, etc), and the fundamentals are still very strong. I follow video game stocks quite closely, and I would be pleased to own ERTS at $55 if I am exercised. I love these situations. It showed strength on the gap-down this morning as well. I also like that the...
  19. C

    probability distribution formula?

    Ahh...thanks for the correction. I was under the wrong impression.
  20. C

    probability distribution formula?

    Just buy Hoadley's options package--it's worth it. You can go behind-the-scenes and see how things are calculated, etc. Also, FWIW, according to Natenberg, the delta is usually very close to the probability the option will be in the money at some point before expiration. I personally found...
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