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LoosenUp, I think the idea is fairly true, but... the price has to move a relatively huge amount for there to be much of an effect. So I think at least 90% (?) of the time there wouldn't be much of a difference. (And then don't forget that buyers have the time decay disadvantage.) In...

Thanks for the posts guys. It does sound like there is an edge with the sellers going on. Also I've been thinking about what Prevail said and my last response -- about sellers that use early exits. And now, I can almost picture that they could sometimes actually have a slight...

Prevail, Thanks for the reply. I pretty much agree with your ideas here. There may be some edge, but as a possible alternative pov, here’s my thoughts on why it may balance out. When I compare the seller-that-exits-early with a buyer, these are the pros and cons I see: 1) The...

Thanks for the replies guys. I really don't know too much about this stuff -- so I'm not surprised that my rough estimation looking at the HV and IV chart probably isn't really accurate. aid1961 wrote: Hmm... it seems like you could be right here. Plus if there was a definite...

To try to answer my own question: At optionexpress.com I noticed they have 1-year graphs that show what the 30 day historical volatilities and implied volatilities were. On the few charts I looked at, it did seem that the I.V. was usually (very roughly) about 3%-4% higher than what the...

just21, Hey, thanks for that link. It's the first thing I've read that gave any actual numbers. But I (also) wonder about how useful those numbers are... For example if most of the options were opened "out of the money" (which I believe is perhaps normally the case?) then it would...

I've heard that supposedly in the past that selling/writing options has fared better than buying options. (The recent "ansbacher" thread had similar implications in it.) Has anyone seen any actual statistical studies/numbers to support this? (Which stocks were observed? Was it that the...

def, Hey, thanks for the response. I wasn't thinking about that traders also earned interest on their "cash" -- but now I think it's starting to make more sense.

TradeCobalt, Thanks for the reply, but I don't understand what you said. What is "JBO"? Also I don't remember what "bp" is. (I thought "basis points" were used to describe the bid/ask spread with bonds, but I don't know how it relates to interest on margined money that is borrowed.)...

kut2k2, I think the minimum balance at http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/main.php is $2000 -- but if you make enough trades to qualify as a Day Trader then there is some trading rule that you need $25,000. Also http://www.oanda.com/ is a forex site where you can do trades for...

I'm just curious what online brokerages are charging these days when you use margin (as oposed to 100% cash) to trade with? I.e. what is the interest that they charge? Is there very much of a difference between different brokerages or do they all charge about the same?

bonddad, Here are some links where someone thinks something fishy is going on: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2005/0318.html http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2005/0518.html

Thanks for the source and attachment. It seems like the info might be good for something -- but I really don't know... I'd guess most people mostly go off just the price charts for the technical analysis stuff. (???)

estrader, I’m just curious -- where have you seen implied volatility numbers for forex? “How does one read the Implied Volatility number?” Please note -- I’m not entirely sure but this is what I believe: If the I.V. number is 10%, and it is the I.V. for one year...

petefern, Actually that calculator was pretty much what I'm looking for, so thanks. For anyone interested: I also found another calculator here: http://www.hoadley.net/options/barrierprobs.aspx (Unfortunately it only let's you calculate a few times per hour -- as its only a demo.) I...

I'm looking for a math formula that can give me the probability that a stock price will reach (or move beyond) a certain target price within a certain time frame. I'm imagining this formula would be something a "one touch" exotic option calculator would use. Where is takes into...