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What I meant is that AAPL's sentiment is currently very bullish. If all the analysts were extremely bullish on the SPX, then that would parallel my point on SPX. How do you view the markets, and what your trading plan look like?

Agree with almost everything you've stated! I do have a bullish bias for the US stock markets for this year too, generally for these reasons (influenced mainly by Ken Fisher's thinking): - bull markets usually last around 4 years (2009-??), the 3rd year's (2011) "down a little"/flattish...

Would you consider using TAO, it's a purely Hong Kong property etf. However it trades only 150k - 200k usd a day and I'm not sure how easy it is to get borrow. My ideal trade would be to go long the HSCEI Index, and buy a put option on the property names (which is the hard part to implement...

Your "devaluation mode" refers to CNY? My understanding is that whichever way CNY moves, HKD will gradually move to using CNY as a reference for its exchange rate (which at current fx rates means an appreciation for HKD), which will make it easier for Beijing to implement with CY in full...

I remember reading the summary last year. After going through the whole piece by Ackman, it's a fascinating piece of research, and I do agree with the conclusions. I agree with you that that 1 year would be a much better timeframe to expect than the next 30 days. Btw, Leung (whom I think was the...

What's your rationale behind this trade? My opinion is that the HKD reval (/repeg to the RMB) will be a gradual process. Hong Kong depends alot on its exports after all, so a sudden revaluation (appreciation) would disrupt alot of businesses. Was wondering also what sort of bid/offer you're...