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Clearly Zen Student knows what he is talking about, but I disagree with his viewpoint on the emotional side of trading. Trading inevitably means acting upon imperfect information and taking uncertain amounts of risk. It doesn't matter how quantitative your model is, or how robust your...

It's a naturally tendency to take your profits too soon and not cover your losses quickly enough (loss aversion). But if you never have an edge to begin with, this principle is irrelevant. ES are basically the most liquid future there is, and I sincerely doubt the OP has a leg up on the 100s...

curious how you model the rolldown. Do you just keep the term structure fixed in terms of constant maturities but move the day forward and reprice? I've actually tried using the variance swaps theta to come up with an estimate, but I'm not convinced this is the best approach. Thinking of the...

Playing the term structure can be risky if you're trading options. But VIX seems much safer to me for a few reasons: One, you aren't dealing with a potential liquidity trap - even the back month futures are usually no more than .20 wide. In vol terms, VIX trades tighter than options do so...