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Markets are not random, they are chaotic. Lorenz put it as "When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future." No one has perfect information, therefore the market is observed as chaotic by everyone.

Holy shit - thank you thank you thank you! I got to about page 50 of this thread and thought I should jump to the end and see if it was still alive and there was still good info being produced. What a treasure trove :D

it doesn't work because no one will lend you the leveraged etf to short try shorting one yourself if you don't believe me

Can you give an idea of when you think that will happen?

And that same pair over the last few years to better show trend.

Interesting. I've very recently (since last September) started a kind of trend following strategy for index pairs. e.g. S&P500 v ASX. It seems to me that these can exhibit strong, long lasting trends. Attached images show a graph of (16 * SP500) / (5 * XJO) with last two trades marked. Still...

Doubters! ha ha - toughen up man :-) That's the point of this place, it's a ruthless bullshit detector. Can Iris run strategies over longer time frames? (days to a couple of weeks)

So Patrick, can you explain the edge that a trader can bring to your system (as opposed to the other way round). I am asking on the assumption that if Iris, in and of itself was the edge, then you wouldn't be selling it. Also, can Iris trade Australian equities? I need software that...

Too true. Nature of the beast I guess. No doubt I'll be stopped out by Monday morning.

Couldn't agree more. China is stockpiling. Iranian shortfall is bullshit, we've had months to prepare. Consumption is down, everyone is pumping their arse off (pun intended). I've been short since Tuesday.

Hi, First off, I'm a learner. I opened a bear call spread using E-mini S&P 500 Jan options on November 4 as follows. ES JAN 2012 1100 Call - Sell to open ES JAN 2012 1150 Call - Buy to open Credit of 41.25 Held to expiry, max risk $437.50, max profit $2,062.50, break even when...

That was dumb. Replied to wide tailz twice in error. Thought somehow my first reply didn't post.

With the stocks, yes more or less. Recently with the futures not so much. I'd be looking at the price rocketing up and think "I'm gonna get me some of that". I would set stops just under where I perceived the resistance to be. Limits not really well thought out. Sizing. What I could afford to...

No I didn't. I'd look at a graph of the gold price and an internal voice would go "wow - get me some of that". I know how mental that sounds. That's why I'm here.

Many thanks to everyone for the replies. Having come across this forum a few weeks ago and familiarised myself with the quality and directness of the readership I was not in any way expecting a sugar-coated response. In many ways that post, my first, was a confessional. In response...

Hi, After ten years or so of reasonably success trading shares (average 15% gain p/a) it seems I've decided to flush my money down the futures drain. I'd been placing small (couple hundred $) bets using a CFD account that let me trade mini's (ES and Gold) for the last couple of years and was up...