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  1. S

    any recommedations for good blowup books?

    numero uno, imho :) is http://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Investment-Classics/dp/0471770884/sr=8-1/qid=1172218804/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/105-9851391-8625229?ie=UTF8&s=books also quite good is this one-...
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    Russia gas nationalization and politics

    Nice post. I can say that as the Russian citizen (not Russian by nationality) who lives and works in Moscow. In the investment management business by the way. Despite all that articles, western money should be really happy here in Russia (+90% in 2005, +70% in 2006). And this is double-faced...
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    Moscow?

    Rubtsovskaya nab. is located somewhere close to the Elektrozavodskaya metro station, on the bank of Yauza river
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    which sectors will outperform next year ?

    May I update this thread, dear colleagues? Last year was pretty in line with our forecasts. Gold, grains, telecoms all outpreformed the broad market by wide margin (+23%, +30%, +36% respectively), energy and commodities as an asset class were in line (+16,5% XLE and +13,5% CCI index), Japan...
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    Best TA graphs sites

    I've been using www.stockcharts.com for 2 years and pretty happy with it. Although they have rather good free area, I use subscription to get real-time charts and John Muprhy's market comments (3-4 articles per week).
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    Moscow?

    I was born in former USSR and have been living in Moscow for the last 18 years (except almost 1,5 years for MBA in Western Europe). So, I'm insider :)) Fact: Moscow is the best place in the Eastern Europe to make money. When you consider Western Europe, only London might be better place for...
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    Gold Stocks - buying the break...

    GDM index (or GDX ETF) is up another 3% today and retesting early June highs. I think further upside from here is limited and therefore would consider some short-term profit-taking and re-entry on next pullback.
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    Gold Stocks - buying the break...

    GDM index up 7% yesterday. My idea to buy gold-mining stocks index ETF on pullbacks, posted on 06/22, proved to be right. But I don't think the rally is over. Expect at least retest of GDM June highs at 1080 (which is 5% up fom yesterday close).
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    Gold Stocks - buying the break...

    The ratio of gold-mining stocks (expressed by either index: XAU, HUI or GDM) to the price of the metal has just broken its downtrend, which is the sign of a bull for both (stocks and metal), imho. At least until the ratio reverses its new uptrend. Would play this market from the long side for...
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    Gold Stocks - buying the break...

    I would suggest to try GDX. This is relatively new ETF corresponding to the Amex Gold Miners Index ($GDM). Includes 45 stocks (diversified much better than XAU or HUI), liquid enough (yesterday daily volume 366000 at average price 34$). Of course it is possible to pick some individual names...
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    SP 500 Weekly Chart

    Extremely bearish sentiment reinforces this reversal candle. Put-call ratio 5-day average reached its highest level in the last 10 years and above 1,2 for the first time since 2002. Of course that doesn't mean there is no downside risk from here but it is rather limited. Upside risk is much...
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    Xle

    XLE, OIH and CL futures all either retested or marginally exceeded January highs in April, as expected. But I see no signs of reversal, so they will probably go higher. How much, I don't know yet but expect at least 8-10% more before serious pullback.
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    Japanese bull market over

    Although it took more time than I thought, EWJ is now retesting 14,30 (low was at 13,17 in January and at 13,19 in February and March). I see high positive correlation between Japanese stock market and gold. The reason is probably that the global inflation pressure now comes from Japan, and...
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    Xle

    Yes , gold stocks are my favourites, too after XAU had broken its downtrend. Silver plays look even more attractive. But I equal weight oil and precious metals plays in my portfolio, not favouring one at the cost of another.
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    Xle

    OIH (+1,9%) breaking out of the reverse h&s formation. Moreover, doing that with runaway gap which reinforces the pattern. IMO, it will test January highs at 157,5 in April.
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    Xle

    CL1 conract has exceeded its previous high at 63,90 on the daily chart which means uptrend is intact. I'm a bit concerned that while oil has risen from 59 to 64, both XLE and OIH stay virtually at the same levels (stocks failed to go up with commodity). But anyway, the bullish case is still...
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    Semi's showing strength

    Agree with you but would play selective names in the sector rather than SMH. Look at IFX daily chart for example. Imho it's promising about 50%-60% upside in a year or so...
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    Xle

    Seasonality also supports bull case now. According to Citigroup technical research, July CL contract has a tendency to rise from the third week of March into the third week of May. This was correct 18 times in the last 22 years.
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    Xle

    XLE performance correlates well with XNG (Amex Nat Gas Index). I think next upleg in XLE will be mostly caused by the price of natural gas rather than the price of oil. It has been distressed for now but clearly reversing (already up 15% from March low). Needs to break February reaction high...
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    Xle

    CL1 contract just retested 03/09 high at 60,90 while OIH has clearly exceeded its intraday high of 03/09. Imo the fact that stocks lead commodity is a bullish development and OIH should retest its March high above 144 within a week or so.
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