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From my point of view I think its easier for an individual to make 20% consistently than it is for a fund manager - the latter is moving large amounts of capital that can be picked up by others including HFT's, day traders, etc. The most important thing I learned from my journey was the...

wow...this thread this is the OP its been a couple of years since i started this thread i spent about 6 months reading books non-stop and realized it didn't help much at all with trading and that i wasn't learning much i then spent 6 months trying to trade my own account...i think i...

Money markets aren't paying anything right now and I thought bond funds would be the next best thing - low risk with high enough return to beat inflation...I was right with the short term and intermediate term funds but I didn't realize how volatile long term bond funds are.

Holy jeez I just did a search for a historical yield of 30-year bonds and it peaked at 15% in the early 80's.

I bought them to diversify. I had Vanguard Short-Term Bond Funds and Intermediate Term Bond Funds and both were doing okay (Intermediate Term actually was and still is doing pretty good). I have money spread over the domestic and international stock market indices as well as various mutual...

So according to this: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_bonds.html?refresh=on 30-year Treasury Bonds have a yield of 3.26% 10-year Treasury Bonds have a yield of 2.06% VUSTX: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0083&FundIntExt=INT#tab=2 holds bonds that...

thanks for the link ammo, you were always one of my favorite posters here

Are you telling me to go UltraShort with the long term bond funds?

one of my funds is the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund so as the long term interest rate goes up i'm pretty much losing money with that fund, correct?

how do you go about developing rules that you know will be profitable?

Is this the right table to look at for the yields? http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

that's true but don't bond funds have a typical history of rising? if we're in it for a 3-5 year time horizon, shouldn't we be safe? pardon my ignorance if i say anything stupid but if anybody with more knowledge than me (probably most out there) please chime in

So if bond yields are low, stick to stocks like index funds? If bond yields are high, move the money to bond funds?

I guess current rates are pretty low...where is smart money going right now? Slowly back into stocks? I was going to put it into a money market account but the yields are horrible there.

I bought VBLTX (Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index Fund) and VUSTX (Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares) a few days ago and they've been dropping...are investors moving their money into stocks now and away from bonds and treasuries?

i think he still trades. he has a live web room.

i did a little further digging and found that he made an adamant statement in another thread stating it was IMPOSSIBLE to do credit spreads for a living....the increased volatility would kill your account sooner or later

I'm still investing long term in the markets in my 401k. Why would anybody close to retirement be investing in stocks anyway?

So you're graduating college and you're not looking for a job? Trading is your only option?

pairtrade finder has been a bit buggy for me i find i can get the same with pairslog is anybody else having trouble with pairtrade finder (adding pairs to the home tab specifically)?