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Long term timing with moving averages beats buy & hold more than 75% of the time according to this study. http://easyretirementinvesting.com/2010/03/proof-that-long-term-market-timing-works/

If it is indeed consistent, then it is a great system. Just fade it to make consistent profits.

Here is a link to a blog that tested a 200-day moving avg using a forward testing methodology with Monte Carlo simulation. It indicated the 200 day ma beat buy & hold 77% of the time. http://easyretirementinvesting.com/2010/03/proof-that-long-term-market-timing-works/ TFer

Here is an interesting article on retirement investing. http://easyretirementinvesting.com/category/updates/retirement-investing/ The article indicates that 2 M$ in retirement savings invested properly has a better than 98% chance of surviving for 35 years. The author states that...