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Trading that on a 10k lot...sure. But with 20 wide (if not worse at times), no real trader was actually trading that....nor should they. Considering performance dictates compensation which dictates livelihood...no one is going to risk their hard-earned cash with guesswork.

Yeah, that was a nice jolt on low volume. I'm short from the aftermath at the figure. Looking for further breakdown here as target was around 4340. My S/L is now 4390. There's been a ton of selling into the strength heading into this...and the reactions are only confirming that price action...

When NOT to trade? Just see this morning after 8:30am EST. :eek:

Speaking of price action....the chart I was looking at before on EURUSD daily indicated a bull flag. Perhaps the accumulation chart pattern was due in part to the austerity measures? Price action is key, but be weary of what transpires this morning. Impulse reactions are often emotional...

To clarify a few things (and by clarify I mean distort with my own opinion)...Lagging price indicators are not a flat waste of time. Think of "price action" as a series of buys and sells from a participant. The succession of these actions may show as chart patterns (which is why people...

Just to follow up on the already well written comments... If you want to look at volatility for any of the pairs (shown in a number of ways; i.e. hourly, daily, etc), check out: http://www.fxtsp.com/tools/volatility-charts.html I've used the site from time to time for quick reference...

To put things into perspective some, the average monthly % chg in price for USD/JPY from 1/2000 to 5/2010 was 1.84%. Collectively, the average for months June/July/August was 1.62% (12% decline). So while ranges may be tighter and volume lower in the summer, there are certainly moves to be...

It looks like USD/JPY is basing down here above 80 and steadily holding its ground. I wanted to know what normally happens in situations like these, so I looked it up and found that most times the pair tends to bounce fairly strongly with similar price action. Based on the chart, we could see...

Where volatility normally dies down some, it looks like it may continue to be above average. Swing traders should continue to like the price action. The charts show favorable volatility and with a short-term upside bias (with initial resistance at 1.43).

RBA minutes possibly? The timing in the move to 1.43 in the chart was a bit off, but happened similar nonetheless. I'm expecting similar conditions as we saw between 1.43 and 1.432...a lot of fighting price action.

I can get behind that, though I believe it would still be a part of a bigger move. I'd look at any dip as a shakeout going forward. Looks like it could stall out and retest prior support/resistance before resuming the more macro trend.

Does anyone else see (or have already commented on) the bull flag in development on a daily chart? The charts I use (which include a few prediction candles) indicate further bounce to the 1.45 level with minimal downside risk. Am I mistaken or is there really a flag in development? Please...

Right now, EUR/USD looks to bounce a bit more (appx 200 pips)...back toward 1.45, with minimized risk of downside. Seems to also be setting up for a Bull Flag

Exactly right. And the reasons are irrelevant. Whether wrong or right, consistency is the key. I'll happily follow/pay attention to anyone who is consistently either right or wrong.

I'd say you just found a nice trading signal! :D

Lots of good commentary. To rehash and introduce a few things: How could one even say it "should be" at say 1.20. Would that not assume (maybe wrongly) that prior valuation was absolutely correct? I mean, if current values are so "incredulous", how could we ever truly think they were...

Levels were very reliable this time around. I kicked some at 4150 and kicked the rest in front of 4050 in the 70s. I'm looking at some congestion ahead along with consolidation.

Nice trade there, glad to hear. I'm only short a half stack from average of 1.4232. I'm holding for a break of the 1.4180 level though I won't be shy of cutting it on a stop run higher. The 2 support levels I see are 1.4150 and 1.4050. I'm looking to kick some at 1.4150 and re-evaluating...

Good point, but be careful with that assumption. You are assuming that 50% is the average of where it would revert to over time (or assuming a cross of 50% would be indicative of trend change. The truth is really that the average EURUSD position among retail traders is a net short position...

It looks like 1.4250 is a major level for a lot of traders. The ascending triangle that formed since 3/7 had a width of about 250 pips with the breakout at 1.40. Watch for a lot of profit taking and congestion in this year. All models I'm looking at seem to agree with that notion.