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thx bpr

bpr- was wondering how a system with an expectancy of 0.47 compares to most other systems. Do most traders systems have expectancies in this general range?

ok thx, good to know. So I guess the systemis not that great, guess I will keep looking for a better one.

All thx for responding. bpr - Thx for the dropbox spreadsheet. I have all my trades documented in an excel spreadsheet and that is how I did the calcs. Just to make sure I am using the right expectancy equation, I used: Expectancy = (Avg winner x win rate) - (avg loser x loss rate) = (3.73...

bpr thx for replying - I have broken the data set into sections already and have found that when I get a bunch of losses and the system expectancy goes down, say when NYSI goes negative and the market corrects. The system expectancy goes back up when NYSI goes positive and the market rallies...

Hey all I was trading a mutual fund system a couple years ago for which I calculated an average per trade (expectancy) of about 0.95%. This was based on a set of 465 trades. My win rate was 52% and loss rate was 48%. Average win was 3.74% and average loss was 2.04%. Over time the average per...

Winston I actually forward tested this strategy originally using 2 lots, or batches. The first lot had a 5% profit target, and the second lot continued until the end of trade signal. I decided to only use the end of trade signal since the 5% target did not give nearly as good results...

All I am trading TNA/TZA using a mechanical swing system that employs daily close data. My stop loss currently consists of a 2-day "time stop" where I dump the etf after 2 days of lower closes. I also recently added a hard stop of 10% to the system strategy, although based on trade history...

You may be interested in this site, has S/R levels for many indixes and stocks, etc. The site is a paid subscription but he also has a free set of charts on stockcharts. I am currently subscribing to the paid site. http://thetedlines.com/...

As of EOD on 7/27/09, there were 1262 NYSE stocks that currently have a buy signal, out of a total of 1819 NYSE stocks. Does this mean that the remainder (557 stocks) are currently on a sell signal? http://stockcharts.com/charts/NYSEBPI.html thx

dentist that is a great site and has the info I am looking for, thx.

All I have been looking for daily numerical totals of buy and sell pnf signals with not too much success. Looks like stockcharts does not have them, or at least I cant find them. Does anybody here know where I might be able to get pnf buy signals totals? I want to try comparing daily trends...

Bone - what other things were you referring to above? thx

no prob - I figured it was for the other guy. now I wish I had bought SDS instead of MZZ. Probably not that big a deal, will catch it next time around.

Bought MZZ at 44.99, got stopped out at 43.99. Re-bought at 44. Hope this works out. Stop = 43.49. Guess we will see Monday...

Correct - MZZ is an inverse fund so has been going down as the mkt has been going up. So my basis for this trade is that I believe that we are due for a mkt turnaround (down). Since MZZ looks like it is approaching a support line of about 45 I am thinking it is a reasonable low risk trade if I...

when you say "going with the trend" you are referreing to the longer upward trend, say over past month or so?

yayt - looks like MZZ has been trading in a bit of a range recently and I am expecting a general mkt pullback in next couple days. MZZ is a 2x inverse etf of mid cap index.

Sorry forgot to post the chart of MZZ. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=MZZ,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G

All After looking at the pnf chart for MZZ, this morning I put in a limit order to buy MZZ at 44.99 and also at 44.49. If it gets filled I will put in a stop at 43.99. Assuming I only get filled at 44.99, then get stopped out, this would be a loss of 2.2%. If both orders get filled, my...