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There were two pieces to the forecast, the earnings forecast and then the P/E forecast, then the two were multiplied together. The pink is a 13 week ahead forecast, so it was directionally correct. I also published the same forecasting method in Stocks and Commodities in September 1991...

attachment didn't work, see this attachment, I hope

TO create a tradeable forecast, takes a lot of time and effort to get it right, I used to do it, but the data kept was expensive, and i didn't quite get the mest data sets. . . you can search on here for some of my forecasts using these methods here is a sample sportsguy

surf, I am short with the Hamzei intermediate term top call. . just from a bit higher level than your entry. looking good though, reminders of the summer of 2002, when the market rallied into the most overvalued price in history at that time, and then just slid to new lows . . . keep...

with a meltdown of commodities, that's a continued deflationary expectation, with the banking system not doing enough to expand teh money supply. . . sportsguy

you aren't the only one playing the short side, surf. Hamzei didn't do well short today as well. . . he was a bit confused by the action today, as he is also officially short in his market timing call for ranking. . sportsguy

my leading market timer. . . http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/30076-fari-hamzei/5537-notice-of-change-of-bias-with-timer-digest that's two for the top sorry surf, your good, but fari's better. . . sportsguy

at intrade, shorted bernanke as re confirmed for another 6 years. . . I like him and think he is ding a great job, but i don't think Bo'B will re appoint him as he is from the former administration. . sportsguy

as far as elite trader posters go, this place is about the biggest collection of dysfunctional super egos which I have seen, arguing over nuanced interpretations as if the poster's nuance is the only interpretation, and is black and white. . . sportsguy

i follow hamzei on twitter, same scenario. . . its something about surf's setup, as I see him available at some hours, and not at other hours. . . could be the availability of his work servers, as my work servers block twitter, as my company gets between 2 and 3 MILLION spam emails a week...

how narcissistic of you to designate yourself protector of those only you believe need protection! because you can create the need based upon your beliefs. narcissists always use the weak as their excuse to behave in ways that make themselves appear grandiose. narcissists always despise...

following is how many tweeters you are signed up to get, and followers is how many disciples you have signed up. example, sportsguy is following 2, marketsurfer and fari hamzei 0 are followers of sportsguy (i don't tweet) same stats as on seekingalpha.com need to brushup on your...

FYI - I work for a large, infamous conglomerate, and the President of the most profitable segment just made everyone cancel all their travel plans. . . and these are 10-20 person meetings, although airfare is basically non refundable, hotels and rental cars are equal to the air fare, and there...

surf, am surprised that you aren't recommending Gold as the dollar will be under pressure for the excess liquidity sportsguy

A banking inflection point has occurred. Last week, for the first time in recent weeks, the banks borrowed less from the federal, down 7+ billion or so, which is the first sign that the banking system capital adequacy ratios are starting to improve. sportsguy long SSO, ALC, SUNH, BKD, URE...

ALC is my favorite in the group, and this is the one group which i think has the demographics and the money growth in the future. my other favorite in the group is SUNH, both of which i own or have owned in the past. sportsguy

Mike Okistini i am so glad you are here to put everyone who is wrong in their place. I hope you don't stop with Surf, though, and make sure you give equal opportunity to everyone else. and I am glad that you waited until Surf admitted he was wrong so that you could put him in his place...

surf, are you working with the sell side research? you don't type the same anymore. . . sportsguy

Lets look at the "Downside" depressive scenario. . . non technical analytical valuation bottom: SP500 Last 12 months earnings from S&P= 16.36+17.02+16.62+15.22 = 65.22 Put a p/e multiple of 10 on the earnings, and the downside is 650 on the SP500 look at the min of the past p/es since...

the link in the post above is one of the largest waves ever surfed, the phot was taken in australia, and the wave is not at a beach. . . i figured it would be fitting here. . . sportsguy