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I've been waiting for 1121 for weeks. And isn't the saying to sell the news? I saw weakness in RSI at 1119 and a low risk opportunity to sell ES (1118.5 w/ 4pt stop). Unfortunately I sold 1/2 at 1106 because I was too slow to adjust my target to gap fill. I'm thinking yesterday's swing low...

Trade was based on H&S + Grail which I should have had more confidence in. To make it worse, I added at 79.75 and moved the stop down to 81.75 and now I'm out. My original plan was short 5@84, cover 3@80 and move stop to B/E on last 2. With the next targets at 77 and 75 (or long signal).

H&S played out out 3 @ 82 (+6) - LC's comment got me nervous... out 1 @ 80 (+4) 1 left, going to manually trail in case we visit 72. stop @82.25

shorted 84, stop 86. some divergence this morning and now a H&S. was going to scale out at 82.5 but it looks like 79-80 will be here in a minute.

Do you mean the TL from 10/8 to 10/12 peaks? That lines up with this morning's peak.

stop moved to 71.50, trying to add at 70.5.

reg trading hours. usually covers a wide range so I'm banking on seeing 53.5 gap fill by friday.

out 1@70, out 1@69, +3.5 leaving one for 53:D stop moved to 71

sh 71.5 st 73

I meant today, as in RTH. 1071-1063.

on the way up at 1030AM there was 2500 SPY 108 puts bought at 1.55. This was just before the spike to 67 so the bar is red but really its buying pressure and has been a good sign of upcoming move. 67 was 50% for today, not 68.

yeah, I'm looking to close my SPY puts at 1054 (i scaled in 3 times at 1055, 1065, and 1075). Already back to the green here at 1065. I don't expect it to go below 1048.50. Similar to what Pekelo was talking about, the past week looks like a hills/mountain pattern (Suri) which calls for...

:eek:

so we can't freefall to next ledge target at 1059?

I don't think so, your close back in 10/08 is too low.

not sure why yours shows the gap fill. Mine shows a gap like the chart posted above. My thought was that SPY paid enough dividends to make up the gap.

Even better if we gap down tomorrow for island reversal and have a 30 pt selloff. I figure it's options expiry week so 40 something should be touched. How much longer can the MACD/RSI trend down while ES makes new highs? It's already been ~2 months...

that's what I said earlier.

last was 8/1 (.52) next pay date is 10/30 (.51). interesting how the october div has dropped from .69 to .51 in a year but ES at same levels.

Looking at SPY, there is a 110.34 to 107.62 gap ($2.72) a year ago. Since then, has SPY not paid enough dividends to fill the gap? .69+.72+.56+.52+.51 = $3.00 in dividends and SPY hit 108.09 today. The .69 dividend paid after the gap but was effective before so maybe it's more accurate to...