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Hi TheStudent, could you elaborate on that? Thanks.

I think I'm going to abandon my own thread and look for more peaceful waters. As a newbie, I'm preferring to be issue-free and low key. Cheers all.

I think the most important probability is, of course, the final chance of success with a model. If a model has four trials, and is accurate with three successes, then there is a 95% chance that the correct proportion of successes to trials is between 28.36% and 94.73%, though 75% is most...

It's all good, I'm just here to learn about trading :) You're right, we were talking about different things. Your notation suggests to me that you are differencing price, in which case I can easily see it correcting for autocorrelation in a series, good point. When you say the variance...

I'd never ram something down other people's throats; to each his own. But I do think this is an appropriate thread to discuss statistics if anyone's interested.

I agree that more granular units of time usually give more to work with. I'm enjoying daily data, and if successful with it and trading in general to my satisfaction, look forward to subscribing to intraday data in the future. In a sequence of p(t) to p(t-n), I cannot agree with the iid...

I'll take a crack at the probability, kind of a cheap crack and suggest that without prior information the probability of correctly estimating a high in a given day at a given minute is asymptotic to infinity as the granularity of the units approaches infinity...that is also saying that I don't...

I love it. Good question. By the way, I'm searching for the thread now. Which one is it? Thanks. If I understand you correctly, you're asking what is the probability of predicting the high in a given day at a given minute out of 360 trading minutes, and given only the closing price of the...

Many thanks for all of your good replies, and it was good to meet each of you. I will take the suggestions to heart and consider them carefully. Thanks again.

Ok, if after-hours is out, what's the next best route? Let's say I get Scottstrade (no idea good or bad), I'd be able to call with a cell phone and place an order while at work, right? Maybe that's a decent method, check the intraday (with its 10 minute lag or whatever) at Yahoo Finance, then...

Thanks for the heads up on relationships and arbitrage. I don't know anything about it, and I will look into it. To me, the risk aspect of trading is quantitative like anything else, and should be modeled and optimized. I haven't done it yet, so this is fluff, but maybe something like you...

Last question in this thread then, I promise. If you were to try swing trading after hours, what do you recommend for software, online brokerage, or what not?

I can accept an amount of uncertainty, but not true, pure randomness. Sounds good, we're saying the same thing, find patterns that overcome enough seeming-randomness for each of us.

sg20, it's funny you say that, because that's what I'm using, my own implementation of a nonparametric pattern matching algorithm. And it's showing promise.

You could be right of course, but I beg to differ. The only way a stock is unpredictable is if it is truly random. And it is a valid position in philosophy of science that nothing is truly random, depending exactly on its definition. Any exception to randomness is a pattern that can be...

I'm hoping to be a zerfetzenTOR :p Sounds good, I'll stick to stocks for some time as I learn my way around. About longer term vs. shorter term, I'm playing around with a custom method that yields the estimated probability of an increase or decrease on the following day, or as we all know...

Nope, not German :)) It's a long story, but zerfetzen means to rip or tear to pieces, and I guess I like that idea. Anyways, Thanks Prince for that feedback, that makes all the difference in the world! The way I was thinking about it, no one would ever be profitable.

Thanks sg20, I'm sure you're right. The odd thing is that if Wkipedia's description of swing trading (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_trading) has any merit, there are 22 occurences of the word "stock", and zero instances of "futures". It probably just means that the article isn't very...

Hi, I'm very new to the idea of trading. I have a question. I have read a variety of articles, posts, etc., but am trying to learn the basics. Here is the question: How would you determine a requirement for profitability of a trade, a priori? For example, let's take an average American...