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The most of pro players really work on arbitrage but i m not sure every individual trader can afford this kind portfolio. My arguments apply to both kinds. Such approach in any case includes statistical inference based on some sort of correlation or other way to establish dependency pattern...

As a rule, we cannot accurately deduce the exact probability as a measure over a set of elementary events. It means that we hardly will ever know particular probabilities associated with each particular trade. Useful results appear because we are typically interested in some generic functions...

I just wanted to draw attention to inherent instability and low reliability of common technical indicators and strategy testing. Surprisingly, it impacts both very complex arbitrage models of market makers who trade huge hashing and also ordinary traders with typical industry charting...

Even beginner trader is well aware how important is testing of trading strategy on historical price data to estimate its efficiency. Everybody who tried to write own strategies in Metastock® or Trade Station® was able to watch performance charts of initial capital growth throughout the period...