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forgot to add - regarding which factors might lead, you will need to shift the comparison time series by whatever lead/lag factor you are using (eg 3mths) and retest the correlations. you need to use some intuition initially but then you can easily see which correlation is strongest. bear in...

hello. 3 suggestions. I) use eviews to perform a principal component analysis - very simple to execute with the software. ii) use error correction (and cointegration to test validity of long run trend) iii) if you want to keep things super simple, just use correlation analysis. depending on your...