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  1. O

    Derivatives are the key to the rabbit hole

    OP, read Fooled By Randomness by Taleb. Taleb provides the insight that when it comes to traders, because the sample size is so large, it is impossible to attribute a traders success to skill as opposed to mere random chance (mere coincidence). Keep this in mind when reading about case studies...
  2. O

    Why not always invest in Deep In The Money / Delta 1 Options?

    In my opion, deep ITM options have the same risk as owning the stock, but less liquidity, is subject to changes in IV, suffers time decay, and has large spreads. If you want a delta of 1 why not buy 2 ATM calls? Theta will be greater, but you will have less risk in a rapid move against you due...
  3. O

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    I think for individuals with large accounts percentage return becomes less important. A 5% return on 10 million is more than a 20% return on 1 million is more than a 50% return on 100,000. As a trade or investment account grows it is wise to reduce risk and accept lower percentage returns as the...
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    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    Let's add some resolution to my remarks, if one is not managing hundreds of millions, billions and trillions of dollars, it's a lot easier to beat the indexes. One can spread tens of millions across some good stocks and beat the index. Buffet and other large funds can't do that with billions...
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    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    I think a good stock picker could do 20% a year just buying and holding a handful of stocks listed in the S&P 500. Sure not every year will be 20% due to bear markets, but I think it's possible for a good stock picker to beat the index every year. Be flat in a down market, make 10 or 20% when...
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