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In financial markets, you at least have positive carry so most people will make money unless you're trading in zero sum markets. In sports betting, the vig is 5%, so your edge has to be significant to actually make money and the vast majority of people lose money.

New Bitcoin leveraged ETFS were launched yesterday. Anyone know when options will begin trading? ProShares UltraBitcoin ETF (NYSE Arca: BITU) looks to provide 2x the daily price performance of bitcoin ProShares UltraShort Bitcoin ETF (NYSE Arca: SBIT) aims to deliver investors 2x the inverse of...

Can someone explain why NGE has been selling at such a steep discount to NAV at certain times (i.e. 50% in May) and is at par during other times (currently)?

There have been VFS options for about a week now. I'll probably put on a bear call spread on Tuesday.

UVXY finally had a 1 to 10 reverse split today, although they probably should have done a 1 to 20 or higher.

It completely depends on where your edge with sports betting existed. There's some differences with sports being binary and financial markets being range-driven, but the skills will translate. Steam chasing = momentum trading with futures or volatile stocks Quantiative spread modeling =...

SDEM: MSCI SuperDividend Emerging Markets ETF. 8% yield with rock bottom valuations. You'll be subject to FX risk, but it's likely that will serve as a tailwind over the next few years.

For a company that makes money on advising mergers & acquisitions, they sure got hoodwinked. The Matt Levine commentary is a great read on the matter. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-12/jpmorgan-says-frank-was-fraud

Yes, and yes. Look at the historical ratio of S&P 500 / MSCI Emerging Markets. Mean reversion is one of the most powerful dynamics in markets, but you have to be willing to take some pain in the short term. I think CEFs are the better play since there's still a lot of large discounts due to year...

Private equity funds have been propped up by artificially low interest rates, which have juiced returns over the last couple decades. Add in the fact that their reported volatility is lower than the economic reality, and you get the perfect storm of huge institutional flows into the asset class...

CVNA went from $360 to under $4 in 16 months, and used car prices are still too high (+38% since Dec'19. You know they don't have a viable business model when they burned cash in a used car bubble. https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/

So basically it's a CEF masquerading as an ETF. I'll probably look to buy if there's a combination of crypto panic and tax loss selling in December.

The current environment (fear of being labeled a bigot for voting conservative) makes polling very unreliable and betting markets will be a better predictor. Republican control of the Senate is at 70% odds on PredictIt vs. 55% 538.

Net-net, it's not a bad business move at all. Worst case - if you lose - you just add an incremental 12% SG&A cost for advertising/promotional expenses.

Caesars is only paying out $30M, with the other winnings coming from other sportsbooks. According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, about $180 million was bet on baseball in the month of September, and in a low margin segment like sports betting, a $75 million loss will definitely hurt.

For a stock that's down 71% YTD, the IV seems very low. Anyone have ideas on what's driving this?

The number one skill in selling options is risk management - full stop. You have the most assymetrical return profile in the markets and getting blown up is a real possibility. As for rolling ITM options, I would defer to Paul Tudor Jones who deftly stated "only losers average losers".

Backtests will make your future returns look overly optimistic. Current implied volatility generally does a decent job of predicting future volatility, though not so much in times of extreme panic or complacency. Net-net, your strategy of selling cash secured puts in times of high volatility is...

Current AAII % Bull-Bear Spread is -36%. Too much pessimism out there, and that indicates it's likely we're nearing the bottom.

At $12K - if it ever gets there - is probably a good risk-return profile and hedge given his wealth. His stance on crypto is not exactly surprising considering his libertarian streak.