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ids 05-16-07 02:37 AM: "It does not work like that. It is not easy to jump off PM account." How difficult is it to jump off? I have read http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=margin. I see where it says It should be noted that "if your account drops below USD 100,000 you will be...

Here's the thought process that I go through for bets on exchange rates: first: do I think the exchange rate is going to go up or down? (or stay flat) second: how do I want to implement my view? If I think the Euro is going to strengthen against the dollar, should I buy Euros in the spot...

OddTrader, You realize that EUR/USD spot and EUR futures (I call them EUR futures because "EUR" is the symbol for Euro futures on Interactive Brokers) are nearly 100% correlated (I'm guessing around 99.5%), don't you? This relationship is enforced through arbitrage. My only aim in asking...

Care to elaborate on the point you're trying to make?

OddTrader, The price in my post is from the CME (easier for me talk about the futures price because that's what I'm trading - I thought it was clear that this is what I was talking about from my 10-31-06 06:58 PM post, which immediately precedes the "spike up" post), but the interest rates...

The spike up to 1.2831 came close to triggering my stop, but I'm still in this trade. EUR is now down to 1.2789. EUR is overvalued in terms of PPP and the interest rate differential favors USD. Here are today's rates from Oanda: Bid/Ask EUR 2.8500/3.1500 USD...

I've been flat EURUSD for awhile, but I'm turning bearish now (bearish on EUR, bullish on USD). The U.S. economy is weakening, but I'd say that this is old news (very old news) and priced in already. I don't think EURUSD can go much higher without provoking some kind of "open-mouth"...

You might try scalping for two ticks with E7 instead.

It's a good thing for me that I tend to use fairly tight stops and that gold went up before going down. I could be looking at a disaster otherwise. This has been a great reminder about the importance of meaningful stop loss orders. Before placing a stop loss order, I try to visualize it...

I should've let the winner run. At least I used a tight stop when I changed my mind. Re-reading my posts, it looks like I actually had some good reasons for getting short and then I reversed on a whim.

After EUR dropped to 1.2797, I covered (at various points near this level) and even went slightly long. I guess I find it difficult to let my my winners run. I think there may be too many trend-followers in currencies now, so contrarian trading has become more profitable. Of course, risk...

I'm getting short EUR/USD here. I think the recent choppiness signals a change in trend. By now, it's pretty well accepted that growth in slowing in the U.S. while it is robust in Europe. My guess is that a lot of dollar bulls have given up. The COT reports show that large speculators have...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2F264F1E%2DCF44%2D4297%2DA2FB%2D3BA053DF6F2E%7D&siteid= London shares gain as miners support On the mining sector, analysts at Numis Securities said, "The mining sector looks set for further gains following the sell-off seen last May...

I'm bullish on gold and oil right now. Ahmadinejad is not going to back down. He loves how the crisis is keeping oil prices high and would love to punish the West for any action it might take by temporarily shutting off its oil exports. Bush seems to have the weaker hand. My guess is...

I think she's asking some legitimate questions - and they are just questions, not slanderous sewage. Give her a break!

Good call, mcurto. I shorted August Fed Funds at 94.83 after nonfarm payrolls came out at 75K, then covered at 94.76 after Bernanke reiterated his commitment to fighting inflation. Looks like I got out a little early, though - it went as low as 94.74 today. What are your thoughts about the...

It's human nature to want to hold onto losing stocks and fall into wishing and hoping for a chance to at least get out at breakeven. Taking a loss means admitting that you were wrong, and people generally don't like to admit that they were wrong. Experienced traders, of course, don't have a...

I think the market will remain weak at least until Wednesday, when CPI is released. We should see a rally if CPI is lower-than-expected. The market is down on inflation fears - and, conveniently enough, an inflation report is just around the corner. If CPI is stronger-than-expected, the...

I think markets are starting to be bothered by Iran, but we still have a couple of weeks until the deadline at the end of April. I think the market is going lower long-term, but I wouldn't be surprised if it just moved sideways or even rallied between now and the end of April.

Wall of worry. Yes, markets climb a wall of worry. Right now it looks like bonds are climbing a wall of inflation worries. I suspect bond futures bottomed out on Sunday, April 9, but we'll have to wait to see whether they have really bottomed or are just taking a rest before journeying lower...