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G is a normally distributed random variable with known parameters. I can see the dependence empirically.

What about the dependence to G?

It's already there, but no answers :(

IV should work too, but I think ATR gives better results. There are probably also other metrics that can be used as input but in any case the question would be the same. :)

Hello, I want to maximize P(ATR(t+1) | G(t)) i.e compute the most probable ATR for next period t+1. G is gaussian distributed with known mean m and std s. Beside G and ATR are not independant. How should I proceed? Thank you

I have a pretty good knowledge of the various spreads but I don't seem to find a strategy to play expected range on less than monthly time frame. Could you please give me an example? If for instance my opinion is that next week's range will be distributed around the open with a std less...

Thank you! What strike should I pick? ATM? And if your opinion is different from the market expectation, how do you trade it?

I meant absolute move! :)

From a given 2) (implied vol) how can I compute the expected activity/range in $? Assuming the trader can price #3 better than the market, how does she exploit it? Can she exploit it on a daily basis?

Hello, From the option price how can I compute how much the market expects the underlying to move over the next quarter, the next month, the next week, the next day... ? And if I think that the underlying will move less, how can I trade it? Thanks

Hello, I understand options, their pricing, the various spreads.. But I still have problems connecting some dots. Maybe you can help me. Hypothetically, if I know the std X for next day's range (i.e. next day's range will fall between +/- X with probability 68%) how can I capitalize on my...