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Thank you both for continuing the back and forth. I'm learning allot from the sidelines.

@El OchoCinco Hey, thanks for keeping us updated on this trade. What was your thinking going into this trade? Did you have a feeling that losses would accelerate into the day or was that just gravy?

@TheBigShort OK, I understand - thanks for the clarification.

@TheBigShort Thank you for your input. If looking at FLYs in the implied space, do you have a method for determining that the edge is sufficient? Des has provided some guidance on this as a rule of thumb so I would like to thank him for previous feedback that was helpful. However, I am having...

Same here if you’re interested in adding one more...

Thank you

Are you using mainly GARCH to forecast volatility?

Do you mind letting this journal play out so that someone like me can learn?

That’s what I thought when I saw the GOOG chart. It looks like it’s “choppy” at the bottom of support. Unrelated question for you... do you have any advice on how to deeply learn about volatility? I feel that I don’t have a good grasp of its effect on positions. For example, I understood that...

Will you have a different position management approach here vs. the GOOG trade? I'm guessing that in this trade, you will be more lenient for the price up/down because you are trying to capture theta? If the price moves to 87.5 or 92.5, do you unwind?

I am trying to think about the risk before the trade... My mental scenario analysis tells me to unwind/exit if the price hits below 1000 because the thesis would become much less likely vs. when the trade was placed. Ie, if it hits below 1000, the probability of the position losing more...

I see...This is what I had assumed. You are looking at prior stats and at this specific time, the probabilities look favourable.

Ok thanks. That's what I suspected but I wasn't sure.

I'm an options newbie so apologies in advance for the basic questions... Destriero, how do you manage this position if you have an immediate move down below 990?