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Does this mean we can now stop using this conwoman as the poster child for the "theta edge"? What do you say guys?

I'll add some more. Long XIV. Selling front spreads in VX futures (switches). Long DITM call spreads. Carry trades in FX. Long Dispersion trades.

Story time. So my market making firm back in 2007 started an internal fund. The goal was to poach some of the better market makers in the industry to bring them into our fold and create a fund that made markets with a little more appetite for risk. So we got this guy from Peak6 who was one...

Yeah this is completely false. I love ET!

Their numbers completely match those of the S&P 500 over the period and they conveniently started "after" the credit crisis and even more conveniently got a slight edge on the S&P 500 by starting in Oct of 2009 after the ES had already ripped 20% off the lows. In other words, back that data in...

This is the last 18 months. Looks like one big range to me.

Let me just add something that has not been mentioned yet and I think a lot of trader forget. Markets can correct two ways, through price and through time. Time is actually much more painful believe it or not. The market can easily grind sideways for months or years and work out whatever...

Keep an eye on these beans if they take out the swing highs...

Anyone long GBP/AUD?

I think there remains a terrible misunderstanding on this thread first of all, what a model even is. Models in finance are NOT used to predict a specific price or a specific vol. Nobody is talking about predicting the future. The problem with ET is there is a huge distribution in both...

Well I think it should be pointed out that a big reason why many big firms fail is not because their models are wrong but because they are constrained by liquidity (LTCM). Big difference. This is a huge advantage for the little guy. Also, all non stationary data can be made stationary...

I wholeheartedly disagree with this. First of all, if one is not predicting vol or price, what exactly is your position? Random? Theta is not an edge neither is blindly selling premium. When you sell options you are implicitly making both a vol and price forecast whether you want to or not...

You're welcome. I agree, we may be reaching the zenith in quality here. The "I don't need no stinkin edge group" is about to show up. LOL.

Guys I have clearly spelled out what an edge is. The fact that you don't have one is why you are not understanding the definition. Edges should be difficult to obtain and not freely available to everyone. Is this really that hard to comprehend?

No, buying the RR's was not an edge. His edge was logistics. He could undercut the market because his basis was lower then everyone else's. He had a "monopoly". And no, everyone couldn't just buy the RR's. At the time wildcatters were guys like you and me. We drilled for oil in small...

You are confusing risk and edge. You can take all the risk you want if you have an edge. But assuming there is an edge just because there is a lot of risk is kind of stupid. Nobody here is saying not to take risk. Have no idea what flying and driving has to do with edge.

No man, you're confusing providing a service with an edge. I could bake cookies and sell them to you for $6 per dozen, that is a service, not an edge. Your friend provided a service and was compensated for it. My local McDonalds doesn't have an edge either, they make food and sell it...

Risk management is not an edge because it's widely available to everyone. Again, an edge by it's very definition needs to be allusive, hard to obtain and come at some cost. An edge is not a stop order or some rule that says if I'm down 2% I get out. Anyone can do that. John Rockefeller...

Yeah here is a simple question to ask yourself, if it was possible to make money without having to predict price or vol and make money, then why would anyone go through the effort of trying to predict price and vol? Everyone should think about that for a second. It's like saying if I could...

The book is "not" a how to book. It's far more academic. It will tick off the Johnny Back-Testers from Trade Station who are searching for coded they can copy and paste into their software and run back tests. It's much more about "understanding" why these trades work. For example, there is...