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Opening above 3111,25 and holding that level would be ideal. The anticipated scenario then would be range expansion upwards, i.e., 3330 or more. Failure to hold 3111,25 on the Open probably sets up 3300 again. At least that's how I view it...

Racking up commissions here, but let's see if this one holds. 3 B/E trades so far this morning. Let's see if this one works.

Yep. 3300 needs to hold. But 'they' may overshoot it. 3295 maybe.

Stopped B/E. Back in long at 09,25. Stop @ B/E. Going to take a few stabs on the long side here, but not comfortable with a wide stop. EDIT: And stopped again. Let's see if we go all the way down to 3300 now. Will try to re-enter a long, but probably won't post it. Generally, I manage my...

Long 3308 with stop @ B/E. Will probably re-enter if stopped as we could pull back deeper than this. Might go down to 3300.

Weekly forecast updated by Wednesday's Close: - Week Low in = 100 % - New Highs = 71 % chance - Closing Higher = 86 % chance Current weekly range at 46,75 is way below recent averages. So was yesterday's RTH range (2nd smallest so far this year). My view is that Wednesday was a...

LOL. I'm not surprised. I have comprehensive and detailed tables of market data which I can use to calculate statistics and check the most likely outcome on a given pattern/data sequence. The main takeaway in my own studies is that quite often when I check these statistics the actual...

Nobody wanted to answer how Al generates his probabilities. Are they hunches? Or is he a quant, also? As I use statistics a lot in my own trading I'm genuinely curious.

A bit busy now. Do some reading here and ask if you have questions after that. But basically, you just sell X number of e-mini S&P 500 futures contracts. You need to calculate how many based on the worth of your portfolio. There's e-micros available also, so you should easily be able to create...

Actually, I was a rock star (guitar player) or semi-professional musician in my youth, but that's another story. :) I'm not selling anything, trying to mentor anyone or making any claims. Just making the occasional comment in this journal. Forecasting and trading are very different...

You get the feeling a sell could be coming anytime now, but my intraday model gives a very high probability (9/10) of the LOD in and a new HOD coming. With an 11,75 point RTH range so far - something should give. Let's not forget yesterday's deep pullback down to the LOD before rallying into...

How about simply selling futures contracts?

I wasn't around in 2000, but I guess this is how a bubble feels like. The only thing that recovered so far are stock prices.

LOD most likely set. 3330 today. Maybe 3337.

The would have/could have/should have trade right now is to go long on any decent pullback from here. Particularly if we hold above 3300 it should be a fantastic long trade. The market is however so strong right now we might not get that. There is the small chance we drop below 3300 (but not...

Actually, nothing changed as the last input was Tuesday's Close. But it takes some time to update and sort the data and I didn't do that part until this morning. Generally, I only day trade, so it's not a priority. The weekly forecast model is just something I'm doing to help that and which I...

Guys. I knew I said bye for now, but I just updated my weekly forecast model and the results/probabilities are simply too strong to not share with my fellow ES traders and they only support what I said prior to Monday's Open and what the charts otherwise are saying. Here goes: - The odds for...

Actual LOD today= 3277,75. Actual HOD today= 3300,50. Yep. Nailed it. ;) Bye for now.

I watched a free video on Sunday. Not bad. As an introduction to price action I'm sure this course is top notch. My skeptical comments from earlier are still valid, though. The general flaw with 'price action' is that it's (very) subjective and open to interpretation. Of course - steps can be...

Fundamentals or not - it is what it is. This market is going higher. As soon as we tag and clear 3300 - we should be looking for the gap @ 3337 from the 21st of February to fill. The curious question to me is what will happen if (my guess) we reach the ATH on this leg up. Will we print new...