disclaimer: you seem well on your way to ask the same question as this guy, so I just try to save you from posting the same questions http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=103865&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
Rule #1
In a losing game such as trading, we shall start against the majority and assume - we are wrong until proven correct!
-POP (Phantom of the Pit )