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  1. M

    The ACD Method

    Good stuff JT. That is exactly the process one has to go through. The "optimization" part. It's hard work, but that is where the payoff is.
  2. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    Overused does not change the facts. Sorry. It's possible the only reason the counterparty is there to take the other side of the trade is because he/she has the edge and you don't. When you run out of capital you won't have to deal with him/her anymore. LOL.
  3. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    Theta and gamma are calculations, not edges. Same with Vega. Volatility can be an edge if you can forecast it better then others. It's kind of like saying earning interest at a bank is an edge. I give the bank money and they pay me interest on my money. And that interest is my edge. One...
  4. M

    The ACD Method

    The floor is yours....
  5. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    That's the one.
  6. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    You need to have a clear answer. Edge has to be quantified. If you don't know what your edge is, there is a good chance your counterparty who you just traded with does know.
  7. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    I found this book to be outstanding. It's very heavy lifting (in weight that is), but man alive, this book takes away all the bullshit and throws shitloads of data in your face on the efficacy of every strategy alive and gives you the cold hard numbers, both good and bad. It basically helps...
  8. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    There is such a deep lack of understanding here I don't know where to start. It's not the price drop that is going to hurt you, it's vol exploding. Do you realize from aug of 2008 to sept of 2008 in the span on "one expiration period" the market dropped 40%!!!!!!!!! But it's not the...
  9. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    What? LOL. Victor was selling options 9 to 12 months out! Weeklies were not even around in 1997. Come on man. Look, you need to learn more before you start doing this. The best book on options is "Dynamic Hedging" by Taleb. Then read his "lighter" read "Fooled by Randomness", then...
  10. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    Why? Look, the first question every trader has to answer when they think about putting on any position is "why" am I doing this? What is my edge? What do I know about this particular structure on this product at this time that NOBODY else knows. You need to answer these questions.
  11. M

    The ACD Method

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-20/something-stunning-taking-place-coast-singapore Uh oh......
  12. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    Those guys don't really trade, trust me. I've met them both. They are former MMs who now push their service. Karen, and there are a lot of people like her out there, has benefited greatly from the vix crush. A 2008 would wipe her out. People on here talk about the selloff we had last...
  13. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    I model volatility. If it's cheap, I buy it. If it's expensive, I sell it. That's it. I hold for 3 to 5 days, 10 days tops. I don't like the idea of rolling because it's really a brand new trade not trying to "repair" an existing trade. If a trade is not working, get out. Don't roll...
  14. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    This is challenging because your knowledge of this appears to be constrained. Honestly, I think excel would work best. I think if you see real numbers at least you have something to go on. You keep referring to theta gains which don't exist, again theta is a 2nd derivative. It takes the...
  15. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    Sure, if the market goes down 100 pts, your ATM position will have little to no gamma, your deep puts will have huge gamma. You "want" to sell peak gamma. That means any move away from your strikes "lowers" gamma". When you sell gamma away then you start off with little gamma and then have...
  16. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    Of course there is no advantage in edge. The advantage is in hedging. Faaaar easier to hedge with zero gamma then with gamma blowing up in your face. FACT! :)
  17. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    Look, there is no such thing as "theta" working for you. That is crap that gets sold in books and seminars. Theta is a 2nd derivative to time. It's not something you "earn", it's calculus. LOL. Also, there is no such thing as being "wrong" in the sense you are using the term. If I sell...
  18. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    No, this analysis is all wrong and it comes from a very flawed understanding of how options work. You are making assumptions after the fact that you are not privy to before hand. You can't just "sit" on your DOTM puts. Buddy your account is blowing up. The house is burning down. You...
  19. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    Not a fan. I think a lot of people result to these ugly methods because like the OP said, he finds it too hard to trade. Look, my harsh advice to the OP is he should NOT trade period. If one can't trade properly, stay out and just invest for the long term. I can't practice medicine so I...
  20. M

    Selling delta 3-5 ES Puts with 40-57 days left

    Let's use real life examples. The July ES is at 2040. The July ATM straddle can be sold for 95 handles. The theta disappears (as you put it) maybe if we get a 150 handle move against you which we have have one or two of in the last two years. You "want" the delta to go to one. Why...
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