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So essentially you are adding new information (i.e. new trades) to your existing trading stats and recalculating Kelly? Would that be right?

When dealing with small, miniscule even, acct sizes like $5k, you can leverage up like a maniac and go for ridiculous growth rates. I have seen 5k to 250 k for instance in a year (that guy did blow up a few times though!). So 5k to 50k is achievable, perhaps the odds are against it, but so what...

What do u mean by closed solution? If u mean a standard function, then yes, i suppose it is.

Yeah, it's a 2 min job in excel.

U need to post more posts, then you will see the Chat option at the top of the page.

99.4%

I'm not using botpro's method. I don't even know how he came up with his answer (I don't know to to code in c+ or anything else). I derived my answer from looking at what Kelly is all about i.e. maximising the rate of growth with respect to a variable. Create an function. You then make a...

Your adverse drawdowns on some of the trades are huge compared to the amount of profit you eventually make. I'm curious to know at what point you would throw in the towel on a trade?

i obtain the same curve as botpro, so 78% is my answer.

Same here, never understood that part.

Btw, China is the 4th largest crude producer in the world, a little known fact.

Index funds or etfs are great vehicles for ACTIVE trading, speculating or investing. However, they are mainly used passively which is of course pure gambling and hoping.

Strategy A will compound your account much faster than strategy B.

i sat down, consulted the Kelly criterion literature on line, and figured out how to solve the problem correctly from first principles. Piece of cake! Would appreciate another puzzle, kut2k2, to test my new found knowledge.

Bit late now, but i thought i would have another go, i came up with an estimate of 51% from doing simple calc on a calculator. Wrong, i know since botpro has come up with the correct answer from using a program, but it was a simple estimate that took a minute to do.

what does the x and y axis represent?

kut2k2, don't you just divide the ev by the profit factor to obtain the kelly fraction?

ev is 0.0575, profit factor is 2.01

2.85%

The most pertinent question imho is how much is your account size? By account size i mean the amount of working capital you have to trade with. It's the amount you are willing to lose in its entirety. Once you figure this out, trading becomes easier (never easy, but easier) since a lot of...