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Truth bomb. If you require certainty trading is the LAST place to find it. If you require “certainty” then look for a mid level unionized job working for the US Federal Government.

What is truly arrogant is to deny the fact that random systems are constantly being explored in our world with mathematical and statistical models. It’s true for financial data and it’s true for meteorological data. In fact you’d be hard pressed to find a field of study where models aren’t...

Market movement by its very definition is market “activity”.

Yes, Taleb’s work on ‘Black Swans’ is seminal and important. But your mandate that financial markets are purely random activities punctuated by Black Swan events is superficial and simplistic. But you and Taleb appear to have common personality traits.

I really like Mark Blyth, the esteemed political economist at Brown University. When he mentioned that he was asked by Taleb to proofread his book “Black Swan” prior to publishing, he also explained that he (Blyth) was one of the few people in academia who could tolerate Taleb for brief periods...

Likely still laughing at your underwater running average short price level. :cool:

Nassim Taleb would tell you that Monte Carlo simulations UNDERSTATE TAIL RISK.

LMAO :Do_O Now you’re just showing your ignorance. Thaler won the Nobel in 2017 for his work on the limits of human rationality as it relates to financial risk. His academic career was quite literally built on the human perception of financial risk. Literally. The dude had a prominent...

No rational experienced trader would argue that there are protracted periods of time during a trading session where the market wanders in the noise of more or less equitable buy and sell orders. We call that “chop”. Likewise - there are times during a trading session where the weight of...

I studied graduate economics at The University of Chicago. I have a few items of note about Taleb. 1. He traded on the floor of the CME from 1991 to 1993. In other words; he made markets - he quoted bids and offers to floor brokers. Doesn’t get much more “day trady” than that. As any good...

Behavioral Economics and Behavioral Finance is a science - it isn’t random. Ask Richard Thaler.

Truthbomb. At least 60 percent of worldwide transactions are in US Dollars. You want the Fed injecting short term repo liquidity because you don't want a pre-2008 scenario where China was buying all the T-Bills and banks were using mortgage instruments for collateral because they couldn't...

FYT and FIT are One in the same - semantic difference only. And DV01 variance won’t make any difference intraday

Well, first of all - the official CME ICS Ratios for the Dec 19 FiT are 1.667 (5:3) - NOT 1.5 (3:2) as you are using.

Your assertion that the ICS valuations are incorrect short term is wrong. If you take the individual ZF and ZN leg prices at the exact timestamp for the ICS prices and ratio them - they will correspond to the ICS price based on the previous day's settlement marks. The ICS is simply a ratio'ed...

Yes, you're correct on that - that's what I get for doing three things at once. I edited my post. Thanks so much for catching that. :thumbsup:

Since these are so cheap to margin and they trend so well - we swing trade them. We're looking to hold them and take big chunks of trading range out of them.

Your understanding of the tic valuations and relative value is incorrect for the ICS spread. The price quotations are net change from the previous session's settlement (it was quoted this way on the floor as well). The five year note moves in quarter tic (1/4th of $31.25) increments. The ten...

Both have similar price action traits

Wall Street Journal The Real Loser From the Oil Price Jump Is China Nation is already dealing with an inflation spike and weak manufacturing margins Higher oil prices are no longer an unalloyed negative for the U.S., but they are for the world’s largest crude importer: China. The country...