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  1. M

    Uber drivers can now lease cars through uber... But prices look insane!!

    They are not getting hosed and here is how you can figure that out. Let them go into the open market and buy the car themselves. Oh wait, they can't, they have no money and no credit. I have a little experience dealing with people in this world with no money no credit and here is a spoiler...
  2. M

    Making Money is Easy

    Martin is asking you a good question. And it's the biggest rub with selling 5 delta crap. If you hedge at the onset, you likely make no money on the trade. But suddenly the stock craps out and vol explodes and now you hedge? How exactly do you hedge that? If you sell stock down at the...
  3. M

    Schadenfreude Warning: "Karen the Supertrader"

    They were not fine. They lost 67% of their capital in two months in 2008. He personally lost 90% of his investors after that. A large majority of the money in his fund is just his own now. You need to really think about this. For most of us in this business losing 20% of our capital is not...
  4. M

    Uber drivers can now lease cars through uber... But prices look insane!!

    You are correct. No car company "looks the other way". What the f*ck is that shit. These uber drivers are putting 20k to 30k miles a year on these cars, in other words, they are destroying these vehicles. They are absolutely not sellable after the lease and no one in their right mind would...
  5. M

    The ACD Method

    ES traded up to the weekly, monthly and quarterly A up today. That's called a tri-fecta!
  6. M

    Schadenfreude Warning: "Karen the Supertrader"

    Well, there are things we have to separate here and they are very important. The "short vol" trade is very crowded. Any kind of small correction can see a very over exaggerated move in vol because the short 5 delta crowd will panic and lift offers like no tomorrow which is one of the reason...
  7. M

    VIX is close to being undervalued: Cheap way to play it

    30 shares of a $2 stock? Does that include his fast food budget money or not? LOL. No, the pros will just buy bonds and get paid yield to hold downside protection instead of leveraging down into the abyss and hope to break even in 6 months.These are NOT the products to avg down into.
  8. M

    Schadenfreude Warning: "Karen the Supertrader"

    I don't know how far back your trading goes but when I got into this business we use to get 2 to 3 10% to 15% corrections a year and they never even got media coverage. Today a 10% correction gets sunday night CNBC specials called Black Monday. They really have conditioned you to think that...
  9. M

    Schadenfreude Warning: "Karen the Supertrader"

    Duke, I've been in this game for a very long time. The last two years have been so quiet and so dead in the markets. You really can't measure something that small as significant. You generally would like to have about 1000 data points to get meaningful results from anything. If you have...
  10. M

    Making Money is Easy

    Venezuela...no extradition treaty.
  11. M

    Making Money is Easy

    When I was on the floor of the CBOE (long time ago) we started lowering our vols at 10am on Friday and by noon the full decay was priced in. But some empirical research came out a few years later showing the so called "weekend jump" was total bs and was based on myth and not real data. So...
  12. M

    Making Money is Easy

    You do know they report tomorrow right? Right?
  13. M

    Making Money is Easy

    I'm not sure if you know this or not and I hate to bring bad news, but most of the weekend decay in options is gone before Friday's open. There is no decay over the weekend for the most part. I hate to take away bonuses.
  14. M

    Making Money is Easy

    What is it with these theta zombies on this message board? The fact that you even say it benefits from theta immediately removes the mispricing element. All you are doing is leveraging risk. Good luck.
  15. M

    Karen the Supertrader - TastyTrade Hybrid Experiment

    How can the NAV be correct if its showing her fund to be profitable? The document is saying that accounting for only "realized gains" the NAV is correct. If I pull your teeth can I say you're Gumby? By this definition Madoff, yacht or no yacht, didn't do anything wrong either. BTW, Bernie...
  16. M

    Schadenfreude Warning: "Karen the Supertrader"

    I'll let Jim Simons know about the scaling. Yeah Neke, I've been doing this for a little while so I'm aware of that. The point is, if you look at it on the aggregate, there are billions of dollars collectively going into this simply binary approach which is selling the risk premia in risk...
  17. M

    Schadenfreude Warning: "Karen the Supertrader"

    Sure, what Bill Gross does is very simple, buys cheap yield and sells expensive yield along the curve. Easy peasy. Sure there is a ton of calculus involved but we'll just leave that part out of for now. LOL. Buy low, sell high. Even a monkey can do it. Karen was not on a journey. She...
  18. M

    Schadenfreude Warning: "Karen the Supertrader"

    I think what happens in a lot of these cases is like many on ET, people really truly sincerely believe that selling premium works and its easy. I have met many people in my life who are extraordinarily intelligent that get fooled by the confirmation bias (google it). It's a very powerful drug...
  19. M

    Karen the Supertrader - TastyTrade Hybrid Experiment

    You may want to read it again: "Each month, Hope caused the Funds to make certain “Scheme Trades” that had the purpose and effect of realizing a large gain in the current month while effectively guaranteeing a large loss would be realized early the following month. In essence, these trades...
  20. M

    The ACD Method

    Thnx for posting King. Good to see you poke your head out every now and then. :)
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