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I think HF returns don't really indicate much considering how much that space has changed. My view is that every pundit out there will be blabbering about his own indicator of FdM and yet nothing of true predictive value comes to life.

Oh, a conclusion that real estate is a pain in the ass is obvious. My main reason for buying was my dog - we lost the lease on our rental back in 2008 and nobody would take us with a 65kg animal. However, what's right for us is probably wrong for Joe from Bumfuck, NY. For him, housing...

I've met a few pretty intelligent and personable crabs in my day. I don't really see that. Granted, the higher the stakes go, more assholes it attracts, but you always have a fair share of honest people. It's fairly easy to be a clean player in an almost-true meritocracy. If anything, I'd say...

I can only mention that there are pure angel investment firms that have done well over the years. Having spoken to a founder of one of them, my sense is that they run it similar to a mutistrat fund.

Actually, borrow rates/avalibility are a primary driver of the option pricing, it's pretty rare for the tail to wag the dog (that is, options to influence the borrow market).

Actually, found this: year median_px monthly_rent 10_year_$return annualized_return minus_expences 2010 221800 855 174440 0.1458528428 0.1158528428 2000 119600 602 94140 0.1190139064 0.0890139064 1990 79100 447 61060 0.1293644068 0.0993644068 1980 47200 243 43160 0.2538823529 0.2238823529 1970...

For sure, even if you take total return on real estate (you are saving rent and paying taxes/mantenance). However, investing in an equity index (say SPYs) you don't get the same access to leverage and tax benefits as a real estate investor. Plus volatility of real estate is more comparable to...

35bps? That's not red, that's barely pink :)

If you're trying to diversify a little, you could consider trading options on non-equity ETFs while keeping the preferred investments too. Most small options traders like to stay on the short risk premium side, so if that strategy goes bad you'd not have all proverbial eggs in one basket

Actually, if you count execution-oriented IT staff, the numbers are not that different today. The only truly manual function that's left to do (those two guys) is block trading.

I am not involved in VC so my understanding is limited but... There is a big difference between Nth stage VC and seed level investment. VC is truly about investing, but it's done with illiquid companies. Payoff is fairly linear in most cases and they have various exit strategies besides IPO...

What exactly is "risk"? As a predictor of realized vol, VIX seem to do as good of a job recently as before. If you compare VIX prices with extreme risk pricing such as extreme tails or DoD cliquets - well, those are driven by regulation. You can't use internal/external bank funding levels since...

Not gonna do it for me, probably: - I need access to the data itself, not just a chart - more importantly, I need concurrent data for all contracts, not only the front - they also probably show you trades only, not book updates

Let's forget about stock data for a second and just discuss futures. So far, I took a look around and it's either completely useless for my needs or it's too expensive for personal use. Who out there provides (a) data per-contract, not that stupid "continuous contract" shit (b) has top-of-book...

Why are you limiting duration to the length of the mortgage loan then? To begin with, it's hard to compare apples to apples. You would have to make assumptions on so many things - mortgage type, access to refinancing, renter protection laws, property and mortgage tax incentives, current age of...

I did not. I said that a fair comparison is an inflation protected bond. Anyway, I can't imagine any sane person saying that a perpetual stream of payments that is adjusted for inflation is cheaper then a single inflation protected principal minus some carry. At least that's not true is simple...

-- so if the rating falls for a particular name, you dump it? Doesn't that contradict your mantra that you never take m2m losses? -- you do know that IG names have defaulted literally overnight with very little warning? Not trying to be snide, just trying to give you a sense that there is no...

You obviously do not believe in credit risk? :)

Why don't you show the study? Cause I can show a few REITs with nice yields that have high rental content. Apparently, those companies get income somehow.

I think you are confusing construction companies (whos business is to build) with residential real estate companies. To give you a counter-example, NYC and London are full of tenements of various degree of luxury, for example, and those places are wildly profitable. Rental holdings are pretty...