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Paulson & crew give the term 'laughing all the way to the bank' a whole new meaning Paulson & Co. Plans Fund to Provide Capital to Financial Firms July 23 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulson, the money manager whose wagers against the U.S. housing market helped him earn an estimated $3.7 billion...

I must say I enjoy the poetry. There is something about it. 'Tidal wave', 'The darkest storm about to descend'.

Rather miss a potential 8% bear market rally with a decent risk/reward setup than join the 'dumb money', go long for a trade and be forced to exit at a loss, right? Last time I checked the money made/lost from un/-profitable short and long positions has the same net effect on my account.

NFP is down ~450k so far. The 2001/2002 recession (which was mild in historic context) lost 2.7m jobs. Shouldn't we be closer to 1m already? Where are the -250k months? New claims are coming in at 400k a week, way below 1990 recession levels which were a population adjusted of 500k+ per week...

It's amazing to see how few here ever put on an asset/FX position pair in a non-base currency. Of course you can hedge out the FX risk completely (adjusting your position weekly/daily/hourly if necessary) and you just pay/receive the interest carry which is either negative or positive. How hard...

What we see now is likely (in part) big trend followers reducing or even reversing positions to short in commodities. Probably lots more to come, we'll see.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/electionsNews/idUKMAR23787320080702 Dalton to raise $950 million for Japan REIT, buyouts Wed Jul 2, 2008 11:31am BST

I'm still long Oil, Oil&Gas Services, Materials (Steel, Mining). Underweight Tech. Short REITs, Financials, Casinos, Telcos, Media/TV.

Right at the open on Monday, most bank and IB stocks were 'red' in IB, i.e. unshortable. Throughout the day the slowly turned 'green' as if IB was slowly locating shares to borrow and they became shortable.

So basically we've been in a recession since 1990 using the 'real' inflation data? Or maybe even since 1980? And then before 1980 it was the 70s stagflation, so I guess the last decade of actual economic growth must have been the 60s?

Kinda interesting Paulson needs handholding in this. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121660908385169563.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news Banker Leaves Goldman Sachs To Aid Paulson By DENNIS K. BERMAN July 21, 2008; Page A3 Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s most senior financial-institutions...

uhh.. no. (1+30)*(30/2) = 465 cents = 4.65.

That was a rhetorical question. I did not intend to ask for any research or technical analysis.

So you're saying you get wiped out if you bet big and are wrong? Is that why trend following specifically is doomed to fail by definition? Doesn't that rather apply to all trading strategies and - more generally - to any brick and mortar type business? Based on this theory, why would trend...

I find it funny they put Rogers in the same sentence with Ackman. Ackman managed $4bln at the end of 2007. How much does Rogers (does he only run his own money these days?) manage?

I love the average 1.25 point per trade default setting, so conservative! :D

Some are even spamming their blogs on message boards frantically trying to convince others they are gifted traders and forecasters!

You know there's always people who say - value investing - scalping - quant trading - trend following - etc. "does not work". All I see is that - over long enough time periods- there are some that make it, and many that fail... in all of the above disciplines. Are they just lucky...

Interactive Brokers TSE market access http://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/exchanges.php?exch=tse.jpn&showcategories=STK&ib_entity=llc

Yes, take a look at http://www.iasg.com and also http://www.barclayhedge.com http://www.autumngold.com