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Interesting case that i think someone alluded to above was if you have infinite trials, you would have an occurrence where rather than going to ruin, you keep winning and the account goes to infinity. If the prob of ruin tends to 1 as n tends to infinity, then you can also have prob of...

Norway is oil rich, with a 70-80% tax on profits of oil producers. They can afford to run crazy socialist programmes.

This is extremely alarming. Basically, the taxpayer is taking the risk on these proposed loans. In the past few weeks, the UK govt has found billions to fund various other schemes from somewhere. So much for cutting the deficit.

No, the difference was the inclusion of a $7 commission per trade which apparently wiped out the (positive) edge and made the system as a whole a negative expectation system. Right, so from a practical point of view, trade positive expectancy systems, start with large capital and trade small...

Give an example of a country which is more socialist than the UK (not that the UK is that socialist atm) which has a "better balanced economy"?

Who is Squawk? And why is anything lower wrong?

ES closes at quarter past. CL at quarter to.

Cash market open is gonna be interesting...

I really wish they would stop doing this. Kinda caused alotta problems.

What is infinity divided by infinity? Infinity? Does it even make sense to divide infinity by infinity?

Well, ultimately the tax payer will fund most of these enterprises :mad: .

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111123-711407.html S&P Lifts Outlook On Iceland To Stable On Improving Fundamentals

Yes, it did!!!

Totally forgot about those inventory numbers :D .

From Reminiscenses: You remember Dickson G. Watts' story about the man who was so nervous that a friend asked him what was the matter. "I can't sleep," answered the nervous one. "Why not?" asked the friend. "I am carrying so much cotton that I can't sleep thinking about it. It is...

Thanks for the link. I would say the positive expectancy system became negative after the inclusion of $7 commission per trade. Hence it is not an example of a positive expectancy system going to ruin, but of a negative expectancy system which we already know will go to ruin at some point...

I read the thread and wrote the comment above near midnight after a drink (or two). Bill is right in that, given enough trials (infinite) , the probability of ruin tends to 1 i.e. certainty. At some point, you would have a streak of losses that would wipe you out. In practical terms...

Don't waste your time on that.

out and reverse at 9670

This looks wrong to me. Consider 1 trial only. The prob of the event not occuring is (1-p)^1, not p^1 . If i'm right, i just invalidated Bill's entire arguments. :cool: