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If you knew one simple thing, you would not have asked that question after the fact, or you would have known the answer after the fact, if not before the fact.

I trust you. Why doesn't it dry up? 56K lost on puts requires very deep/bottom less pockets. If you were to share with others how you get that money, people might barter it with showing you their market tricks and knowledge.

Insight is either developed on one's own (which requires time and deeper knowledge), or shared by someone who already has it and helps one gain it. Insights are rarely written in books, but even if they were, casual readers may not grasp/notice them. It is not easy for a person to know what...

It would most likely happen, and you would realize that you bought a falling knive that you thought was a rising train, but I do not wish that to happen to you.

Are you sure about some of the conclusions you draw? 1. Lower yield leads to a rise in price of assets, not a decline, because the present value of future cash flows would rise (not decline). 2. So the holders of current bonds would make a killing. The question would rathen be: would they...

Dan: with regard to the loss paid from gains, what I meant is that if the chance of a big hit is small, by the time one gets the hit (if any) the account would have compounded enough that the loss from the hit would hopefully be only a fraction of the gains one would have made. There is of...

You seem to be rich enough to finance the market. Who gives you the money that you give to the market?

Have you considered taking the opposite side on negative expectation plays?

Excellent post! Thanks for sharing. I bet the silent readers are also/more thankful for what you have shared. Best regards! TJ

1. If he diversifies, and the hit risk is taken from the profits, there is in fact really no risk. 2. My intuition tells me that the high priced stocks are the stocks that would be good for put options writing. Would be interesting to read any comments from Dan about my comments. Dan...

Dan, A question which I would not be surprised if others asked it before: How come it is possible to find plays with positive expected value? As one can see, they exist because you are finding them. People's thinking might be something like : "The way options are priced renders the existence of...

Good comment Mr. UTI!

Thanks Shortie. Your demonstrated fairness must make a lot of people green with envy! If I get something wrong, I like to think it is because of skill, but if I get it right it is likely because of luck.

There are a-holes who, instead of checking who is sleeping with their wives, are trying to give hard time to good fellows on ET such as the renowned ET member Shortie.

What do you think of an answer like: "Few points above yours"?

Did you check the bed of your wife/daughter/girlfriend/etc in case he is there?

SPY at 121.40 area, which is only 4.50 from TJ's guess-estimate. The rise was very fast, and market never looked back to the level where it was since the start time of this thread. I am starting to worry about a retreat.

Do not forget to read this quote:

When the thread started, ET guys were looking for the short side. Now that they have the hindsight, I wonder if they will be more votes since their vision is now clearer.

No, it is a negative sum game.