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Could this sum up the current thinking of smart bears: "If they decide to send it up, we would meet them at around 1.43".

Any opinion about the future of the price? Do not confuse future price with past price -- the latter is useless but appears to be the darling of drama queens who do not miss an opportunity to talk about the hindsight.

e/u down, and spy UP. Given the positive correlation (hedging) between e/u and SPY, the e/u should be UP, but since it is down, then selling intensity is higher than buying intensity. Therefore the argument of hedging and smart money buying e/u in anticipation of euro banks selling assets...

That is why markets retreat.

Good call! Is your target still the same?

Now we not only know it is an insult, we also have further proof that it is an insult (read the result above). :)

e/u at 1.4169. +41pips (in fact around +65pips if one counts the first retreat). :cool:

First solid bearish signal in the form of an insult! .:) e/u at 1.4210. Now tell sarkozy to stop the bears.

What if ECB is buying to make people believe that those reasons are true reasons? If they really are going to do what they said they would do, we need to see the foreign transactions, certified by independent third parties.

Is this it? E/U at 1.4175. 11:57AM. Another head fake: down 5 pips to 70, and up to 80. Head faking both bulls and bears? 1.42 is not too far, particularly of there are some touch options to get creamed.

I may be ignorant or I may not be, but I would never trust Sarkozy and ECB. I would pay attention to what they would do, and not to what they say.

Banks selling does not make sense, because no buyers at their price and I doubt they have anything to sell that is liquid in the first place. It looks more like ES correlation, short covering, ECB buying to print later. I bet that ECB wants a higher euro, and they put interest on EUR...

Look at the latest low, and you should be able to see the amount of bears buried deep under. Probably no huge shorting opportunity, and more like sideways.

This rise is weird. Is ECB doing the buying? Is it is just covering I would say that ET short folks are being massacred.

e/u at 1.4148. Is it going to retreat here? 10:58AM.

e/u at 1.4062. I find it nonsense. Why should the euro be at this price level for a continent that is broke? Does it make sense to start shorting it at this price level (1.4062)? Would they not have to use the printing press or default at a certain point?

e/us just took off --- any news?

If I decide to share that part, I would let you know.

Opinions are like ass holes - everyone got one.

Here is a hint that might be help you break out in your thoughts: suppose you take the synthetic at a given date and spread it with the pair. Look at the difference at a far off date? You should notice that the synthetic pair, and the price of the pair are not the same anymore. So ask yourself...