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Strange days indeed when ICE Brent nuclear fission gaps 19 percent higher at the Sunday open and Gold opens just a teeny tiny modest little bump up from Friday's settlement. Which tells you how much North American production has changed the global hydrocarbons supply dynamic.

The ICE Brent Futures Contract is going to be more relevant to the Mid East Geographical region.

I am strictly referring to the what instrument would be more relevant geographically between the two. And it's showing in the current markets as Brent is up about twice what WTI is at present. A firm with access to the Singapore or Dubai OTC swaps market would be even more relevant of course.

Just about everyone here seems to be talking about the CME CL contract - you need to be looking at the ICE Brent contract.

Things get more interesting if you can ignore the prompt month(s) :rolleyes: The "roll" trade is what you are alluding to; much of it has to do with commercials rolling hedges to the next month as the calendar spread is the cheapest way to accomplish that objective with size.

I would agree with that.

And why wouldn’t they? Look at what happens when a Country whose populace derives 75% of their protein from Pork sees a 23% decline in domestic swine stocks... And given that some of the Democratic Candidates are now openly stating that they would continue Trump’s tariffs on China and NO...

The “inverted yield curve” as a recession precursor has kinda faded away now that BOJ and ECB have institutionalized negative rates.

Truthbomb

Well, to be fair the BOJ and the ECB took us there. It’s no secret that Draghi is using negative rates for EU competitive reasons. Powell is being led belatedly and reluctantly.

I don’t know if the US will get to zero but there are downsides to having interest rates significantly higher than your competitors - namely, in the case of the US, a stronger dollar which helps domestic buying power but hurts exports. And the US had $2.5 Trillion in exports in 2018 so this...

i can’t ever remember a time when everyone in the press or on the trading desks was in harmony and content agreement about the state of the markets. I don’t think that Soros or Buffett ever claimed to possess market clairvoyance. Quite a bit of frustration being posted here.

You sound incredibly frustrated.

Draghi unleashes a snap 10 basis point cut and announces an ECB bond buyback program - further devaluing the Euro against the Dollar and boxing his successor into a QE mode.

Sure - China took 15 US products off of their tariff list yesterday . And he knows you’re way underwater on your S&P calls :D

Just about every big futures or options prop trader is trading some sort of spread - Swaps, futures, market making hedge, any arbitrage

For inter market spreads, a change of one tic is the value of one tic for the leg that moved. So - if it’s a Russell vs Dow Jones and the Russell leg moves one tic it’s the value of one tic in the Russell. You’ll want to adjust the value of each leg (for currency adjusted volatility weight)...

Jerry Jones has over $1B invested in Comstock shale natural gas fields. Has been increasing his stake earlier in 2019. Makes sense. Demand for physical NG is just getting stronger and stronger as more and more coal fired power plants have already made the conversion investment. It's already...

Truth bomb. And it’s self evident if you spend a day staring at a quality real time DOM trade window in a live market. The automated injection of orders creates so much noise in the micro architecture of the markets

Absolutely. I've been PM'd and emailed by dozens of ET Members confused (and hurt, unfortunately) when they've determined that their carefully back tested strategies lost money - and in the case of arbitrage, got them consistently picked off. I've come to realize that back testing is useful as...