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now, that looks like a proper scam :) My PhD was in an SML-related field and over my years in finance I tried to find a proper use for them. The only real application that I've seen is the use of NLP to process the news and earnings calls, otherwise it's kinda useless. Most effects can be...

You should have a standard expectation that results of live trading are going to be significantly worse then your back test results.

Yes. No (to the next question).

Look, I can't evaluate if you are telling the truth or not - I barely know the theory of card counting and have to go by the few former coworkers that made a living off it in college. Common sense tells me that casinos got to be working very hard to stop this - hence my skepticism. If you are...

Indeed! On a related note, I am surprised nobody gave the OP a proper quiz on modern card counting. I have a few friends that have done it and it's not a profitable business any more - as I said, multiple decks with constant reshuffle, very savvy dealers and really good table observation tools...

LOL :)

Mainly because you get used to a specific jargon and assume that other people know it. For example, a lot of Americans would say "X is built like a linebacker" which colloquially would be "X is tall and weighs a lot". If you work in finance you might as well learn the jargon.

That means that a strategy has small possible absolute dollar output. For example, imagine that there is an ETF that frequently trades at a significant discount/premium to NAV. If this ETF has very little daily volume and you can only make a small amount in dollar terms, you'd say that it's a...

My advice would be to find some capacity constrained strategy so you are not competing with the big boys. Something not en vogue due to liquidity or possible regulatory issues.

One of my dream destinations. Great rock climbing, great food, cheap. What else a man needs? Yes, the old saying "it's best to be the first one of to panic" :)

Well, source of alpha is usually straightforward, but extracting that alpha might be a difficult process :) Are you working on this full time or you are part-timing while doing something else?

It would be an interesting back-of-the envelope actuarial study - what is the probability of a person getting caught in this kind of fin de monde scenario in his life time? E.g. look at all conflicts from 1900 and onwards (modern world only), look at civilian causalities as a percent of...

There is no right or wrong answer here, it's more of a phylosophical approach to life. The advantages of a single strategy are that you know it well, understand the source of alpha and can keep tweaking through it's life cycle. The disadvantage of a single strategy is that you hit a law of...

If you were a local investor in Russia circa 1917 you almost certainly had bigger issues than your investment portfolio. You can think of equivalent scenarios elsewhere in the world over the last century - Jewish investors in Germany pre-WWII etc. No matter how safe your investments are, you...

-- do you know what products and what time frames are your going to target in your strategy? -- would you rather run a single "perfect" strategy or run a diversified portfolio of strategies? -- what, in your opinion, in your setup (from asset selection to execution) gives you an advantage over...

I think you are confusing systematic trading with automated trading. You can perfectly well do systematic trading doing manual execution (for example, if you happen to be trading OTC products). People do quantitative trading across all instruments and time ranges, some of it is fully automated...

I certainly hope that I come across as a nice guy - does that mean I am a scam artist? :)

"Picking bottoms gives you smelly fingers"

So, is that the metric, up days over down days in a given time frame? Cause that too has zero predictive value for next days returns :) Yes, I thought you said that a consecutive streak of up or down days constitutes a trend and wanted to point out that probability of N consecutive up or down...

That's all truisms. So is "buy cheap, sell rich" and "always wear clean underwear". The reality is that number of consecutive up or down days is consistent with random probability, it only differs by 1-2%. Now, it does not mean that you can't follow trends (there are quant funds that do with...