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Would have been the right play, but instead I stopped out for a scratch and called it a day. Those repeated failures to thrust higher creating a triple top at the HOD was a sign the market would not be going higher yesterday, yet I held on to my trade which turned into a hope trade at that...

There's a persistent seller up there and ES is struggling to regain last week's range. I believe the market's at an inflection point here which could swing both ways, so I suppose some churning is to be expected. Should be interesting to see which way this finally goes. I don't have a strong...

And there you have it! Ask 5 people and you have 5 different trend lines. :) Could you share how it would look on your SPX Weekly, then?

Bulls running out of steam here? If yesterday's low breaks this morning rally could be a nice little retrace higher before the drop, but not sure I have the confidence to short this today. Holding long from 53,75 targeting 4495, but prepared to scratch it for a point or two.

Didn't work out yesterday. With ES failing to take out yesterday's LOD on today's Open and NQ ripping higher after a false breakout to the downside I think these targets may be in play for today. First hurdle above around 4470.

Which TF may I ask? From my POV, looking at both daily and weekly, we seem to be at an inflection point. I can easily see us snap back up from here, but continuation lower seems equally likely from my POV. That's just my view based on looking at charts, so not sure how valid it is. My weekly...

SPX Weekly as of Tuesday's Close: Maybe I drew it incorrectly. I'm open to receive feedback. But it does look like it's breaking. So, is this a sell signal? Or will the markets start reversing today and that weekly bar will close green and end the week with a large wick/tail to the...

The main problem from my perspective is the amount of false breakouts that comes out of these trend lines. It just doesn't seem consistent enough. It seems like you need something more in order to know when it's likely a real break and when it's a false one. Add to that, we now have @schizo and...

Makes you wonder...there's no doubt a great deal of luck both in life and trading. Agreed. On the subject of statistics, I'm not sure there's an easy answer, though. From a macro big picture view there's certain statistics that holds up very well long term over a large sample size. I'm not...

Curious what's your rationale is if it's not a secret? I was bullish going into this week and it looked good by Monday's Close, but Tuesday's late session sell-off made me re-consider. Wouldn't be surprised to see this correction continue lower, but I have no strong opinion.

I don't follow him at all, but my impression is he's been bearish ever since The Big Short?

Right. I've added NQ to my repertoire now and may even replace ES completely. It simply moves more with more opportunities and better R/R ratios on average. Entering in the direction of momentum it's very easy to B/E your entry since it moves so fast or just collect an instant 5-10 point scalp...

Not at all? I spoke to another member here in private a few years back who ran an automated system on NQ. He said the same system didn't generate profits on ES. NQ and ES may seem similar enough, but the differences are noticeable when one starts taking a closer look.

Fizzled out up there. Overall an uneventful afternoon session.

It's a juicy bear flag setting up over the last 90 minutes, but I have a hunch that today's not the day. I'm guessing a final decisive push above 4476 would be the death stab for the bears today. NQ 15280 and ES 4497 looks possible by the Close if nobody sells into this level.

The day is still fairly young... I have a slight bullish bias (statistically), but it's far from certain...one of those fuzzy days. Both ES/NQ reversed off the current 50 % level for now.

Late shorts getting smoked now. Too early to call a full reversal if volatility spikes, though. I'd like a move above 4475 today to be certain. This is no doubt an area of interest both for buyers and sellers.

By green today - I'm referring to a green candle on ES. Maybe 4497 / 4500. Second reversal of yesterday's LOD in effect. Needs to see if we put in a higher low and last week's LOW holds here. If we can start ripping above 4470 that looks good for a green close. Time will tell. :) A positive...

September coming early this year? It's a trend day down so far and we just breached last week's low on ES by 2 ticks. Could get frisky if we don't bounce here. 2 % down takes us to 4416, but this day can still go green if we reverse from here.

I get the same result in my local MC simulation in Excel with an expectancy of $180 per trade gross (excluding costs). However, only a 10 % drop in win rate changes the expected outcome dramatically with an expectancy of $60 per trade gross and some simulations going negative after 100...