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Arguably, the IMF recipe has worked in the past. Not in LatAm, but in other places, for sure. Secondly, it's not just the IMF, but the EU that's pushed for these things in Hungary. Finally, none of measures are good for growth, apart from the fact that they instill some confidence in the mkt...

Actually, that's a very valid point.... It really doesn't matter which of the two parties is in charge. It's just one of the flaws of the democratic style of government: its incentive structure, almost by definition, encourages short-termism, which leads to severely pro-cyclical policies.

Firstly, they're likely to bow to the pressure and disclose their holdings some time soon. Secondly, we're talking about 7 German banks, of which one is Deutsche and the other is Hypo Re. Hypo Re is already nationalized. If you think Deutsche has a problem, you might as well run for the hills...

Not sure about what exactly is happening in Hungary, but orange is absolutely correct re the other EE sovs. Since we all like to think the mkt knows how to price sovereign risk, I leave you with the attached chart for now. Speaks for itself... I'll try to dig up other stuff later.

Oh no, surely not this again... EDIT: And yes, I forgot to mention that the original article is also a total load of bollox.

Isn't this more designed for Fund of Funds peeps? Looking at the curriculum, that's what it looks like to me... Might be useful for those, but certainly can't see it being very useful for a normal punter at a fund. Just my opinion, obviously.

That would make sense, had the Fed not ended the agency MBS purchase program in March. Mtge rates have continued to fall recently, because, as another poster said, the mkt is expecting deflation. Hence, nobody wants to borrow.

Without a doubt, I'd choose number I, if I were you. For a variety of reasons...

For this Yquem sort of stuff, I am a big fan of icewine, Canadian and Kiwi being my favorites.

The stress tests are obviously a complete jawk... Take Dexia that had to be bailed out and is known to hold all sorts of toxic crap. Here's the headlines: *DEXIA HAS EU3.679 BLN IN GREECE BANKING BOOK *DEXIA HAS EU2.8 BLN IN PORTUGAL BANKING BOOK *DEXIA HAS EU1.788 BLN IN SPANISH BANKING...

I am not dismissing it. I am a big fan of trades with option-like payoffs, which are often negative carry. I just think that you have to be aware of the true costs of having these trades on. Moreover, you're not correct to generalize and assume I am one of these carry monkeys you read so much...

I had this happen to me once. It's scary, so now I make sure to chew things VERY carefully.

Here you go...

Ha-ha, you can't bait me this easily, amico, although I appreciate the sarcasm very much... To be perfectly and brutally honest, I am as indifferent as humanly possible to whether you ignore me or not. I leave the choice with you and I trust you to choose wisely. As to all the names, to be...

Will do, later on today, if OK with you... Once the stress test idiocy is over.

Yes, pretty much all the strategists predicted that they're gonna do this, but I held out hope that the Eurocrats "get it" this time arnd. Seems like it's disappointment time for me.

I am not a "gut feeling" sort of guy, m. I have looked at these countries quite a lot and, even though they have their share of problems, they're far less dysfunctional than most of their Western brethren. Would you like me to give you specifics?

Looks like you were right, atticus... They stress test only the trading books and don't look at what's held in accrual accounts. It's a jawk.

So it's confirmed officially to be a joke of a stress test. Only trading books to be tested.

Firstly, it IS about timing. The fact that you're risking a few bps is an illusion. You're paying away carry/rolldown, which is the real cost of the trade. The longer you hold the trade, the worse it gets and you get no redeeming benefits of convexity. Peter Thiel's performance speaks for...