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This is altogether a very silly question...

Another slowdown is very likely, IMHO. My central scenario (say 70%) is that neither a double-dip nor significant growth occurs for the next couple of years, actually. A bit of a square root, so to speak, while the West undergoes further deleveraging. Rates are likely to remain low for a...

Ha-ha, this line alone is absolutely priceless!

That sounds about right... I was seeing a wee bit better earlier on, but it's roughly like that. But open interest on these May12s is smth like 2.5k contracts, so there's hope. Still, I'd go for Eurodollars that far out, if I were you. Then you could switch into FF/ZQ, when you get closer...

I believe this "debate" has been going on forever... How about we describe delta as an "occasionally useful, caveat-prone heuristic for approximating the probability of a call expiring ITM"? I might add, a la spindr, that this too is mental masturbation.

Could be... The mkt is very divided here, that's for sure. You should be able to get some liquidity in futures that far out, but, you're right, you wouldn't be able to do any options. If you want options, you might have to do Eurodollars, as we discussed previously.

Erm, there have been strikes all over Europe actually. France, Spain, UK, etc. They're just not being reported in the media across the rest of the world, because it's sorta par for the course in these here parts.

Do you really really, in your heart of hearts, think that the Fed's on hold till May 2012? Even I, a relative bear, have a hard time seeing this as a central scenario.

We're going into month/quarter/half-year end...

I think another common variant of this is the spread between 10y UST and FF Effective. I don't see how you could call something based on instantaneous mkt prices a model, though.

It affects the middle part of the curve (mostly arnd 10y, from my experience), but it normally pushes the whole curve hard. In the current environment, it would be likely to cause a steepening, if it were to occur.

Ha-ha, don't think so...

+1

Have you read today's Macro Man?

I ain't a Euro bull no more. I am a total Euro skeptic these days.

Haven't the Danes voted three times against the Euro already? Seems like sensationalist journalists at it again, given that there's nothing particularly exciting about the Danes saying no.

It's a difficult thing to do indeed with a common ccy (look at the US states with all of their transfers; and they've been a single-ccy area for more than a century). The basic idea is for Germans to foster an increase in domestic demand, while the Club Med folks go through severe wage deflation.

I am exceedingly eager to find out why you believe this is incorrect and what the correct answer might be. Please do enlighten me.

That's right... The current crisis is just making it extremely clear that imbalances of this sort are not consistent with a common ccy. So they either they re-balance or go their separate ways, it's as simple as that.

That's not what he's saying... His point is that the situation in the Eurozone was caused by intra-union imbalances. Germany's budget policies are exacerbating these imbalances, instead of helping matters. This is an argument that's been made by other commentators, such as Martin Wolf, who...